Study On Supply And Demand Of Aquatic Product In China

Aquatic product is an important food source for humans, which plays crucial role in food structure.The majority of Chinese aquatic areas pursuits the growth of production in recent years, which causes great pressure to the fishery resources and ecological environment. With the growth of population and economic development in China, the demand for aquatic product will rise continually. How to keep the balance between supply and demand of aquatic product and achieve the optimal allocation of fishery resources has become an important issue in the fishery field. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this dissertation is to analyze the reason why aquatic product increases in China, to explore the space that the demand of aquatic product grows, and to put forward the policy suggestions for promoting the balance between supply and demand.This study focuses on factors which influences the outputs of aquaculture and marine fishing, such as contribution rate of the aquaculture waters, labor, fishing vessels in aquaculture and marine fishing,calculating and compositing total factor productivity(TFP). It studies the supply response to the price changes of aquatic production, and calculates the price elasticity of supply of aquatic product. It calculates the price elasticity and income elasticity of aquatic product by using data of price, consumer and per capita income. It studies international competitiveness of aquatic product in China, and empirically analyses the influencing factors on aquatic product in China. It forecasts the supply and demand of aquatic product.The results indicate:1. It was about 5.43% annual growth rate of aquaculture production from 2006 to 2012, in which the contribution rate of inputs was 17.45%, contribution of TFP was 61.84% and 8.43% for the error.Among the input factors, the contribution rate of aquaculture area was 12.31%, contribution rate of labor was 6.89%. In the TFP, the contribution rate of technological progress was 60.47% and 1.37% for technical efficiency rate.It was about 2.21% annual growth rate of marine fishing production from 2006 to 2012, in which the contribution rate of inputs was 5.97%, contribution of TFP was 94.03% and-5.23% for the error.Among the input factors, contribution rate of fishing vessels was 16.86%. In the TFP, the contribution rate of technological progress was 18.10% and 81.60% for technical efficiency rate.2. Research on supply response of aquatic product in China by the model of Nerlove, which found that, marine and freshwater aquaculture product have been affected by the production in history;previous prices had a significant impact on marine aquatic product, which had no significant impacts on freshwater aquatic product; the price elasticity of productions was not flexibile in long or short term.3. Based on consumption statistics of aquatic product in China, per captia consumption of aquatic product is not high, and there is still a gap between China and some developed countries in the world;per capita consumption of aquatic product in urban and rural areas is lower than pork and higher than poultry, beef and mutton products. The per capita consumption of aquatic product in rural is much lowerthan urban area, and the gap is widening now. In addition, the consumption of aquatic product has an obvious gap in different regions, especially between eastern coastal and Midwest areas. By analyzing the elasticity of consumption demand of aquatic product, we found that:(1) price has a significant impact on consumption demand for aquatic product both in urban and rural areas, but it lacks the price elasticity. The consumption demand of aquatic product will rise 0.522% in rural areas and 0.428% in urban areas when the price drops 1%.(2) income has a significant impact on consumption demand for aquatic product in urban areas, but almost has no significant impact on it in urban areas. The consumption will raise 0.356% when the income of rural residents increase 1%.(3) it is uncertain for the substitutional relation between aquatic product and meats, egg products. The prices of meat, poultry and egg products don’t have impact on demand for aquatic product.4. The results of questionaire indicate that:(1) the proportion of consumption of aquatic product in the household food expenditure has been increased from 18.03% to 20.47% during 2007-2012.(2)consumption species of aquatic product are mainly consist of fish and crabs, portion of consumption for shellfish and algae declined, and the proportion of molluscs increased;(3) the frozen or chilled whole fish and primary processing seafood are the main forms of aquatic product consumption of urban residents, while the portion of consumption for whole fish has declined, and deep processing of product such as fish fillet, meat and surimi product has increased.(4) the farmers’ market is still the main place for urban residents to buy aquatic product, but they accept to buy seafood in supermarkets and speciality stores gradually, some of whom try to buy seafood online.(5) there are significant regional differences on choices between freshwater and marine products, aquatic product and capture fishing product, and they are willing to pay higher price for organic seafood.5. Analyse about influencing factors of exportation and efficiency of aquatic product in China by stochastic frontier gravity model, which found:(1) China’s aquatic production, importing countries’ GDP, distance, exchange rates and belonging to APEC organization significantly influence China’s aquatic product exportation. China’s output of aquatic product, importing countries’ GDP, belonging to APEC organization has promoted the exportation of aquatic product, while the distance and the revaluation of the RMB have hindered the exportation of China’s aquatic product. There are some developed countries or regions that have complementary advantages with China in aquatic product trade,and they are basically distributed in Asia, Europe and North America. There are some countries with lower exportation efficiency rates, such as Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia in Asia, Chile, Brazil in South America, and Nigeria, Egypt in South Africa. These countries have competitive relationship with China in the international markets, or exist culture differences.6. The price of aquatic product is stable relatively during the period of 2004 to 2013. According to the demand of fishery production, technological progress, policies and level of equipment development,we forecast that the improvement of productive capacity is not a difficult thing. Based on recent trends,we can predict that the output of total aquatic product, the mariculture product and freshwater aquaculture product, were respectively 70250 thousand tonnes, 20000 thousand tonnes, 33150 thousand tonnes in 2016, and 83260 thousand tonnes, 24360 thousand tonnes, 41790 thousand tonnes in 2020. Inthe next few years, the growth of household consumption mainly focuses on Midwest and the rural areas in Eastern. The social consumption will be increased, demand for aquatic product processing will be increased, while demand for export will declined.In the coming future, the demand will be the leading direction in the suppiy and demand devement of China’s aquatic product. The adjustment of product structure and the improvement of quality in the supply of aquatic product are the key points. The recommend is to improve the level of technology and equipment by increasing the investment; to enhance the level of organization, standardization,industrialization in aquatic production and business by innovating management mechanism; to innovate and improve circulation of aquatic product by increasing consumption of publicity and guidance for aquatic product; to establish new mechanism to connect production with marketing; and to make full use of “two markets, two resources” existed in international and domestic field, so as to adjust species and structures of import and export of aquatic product and utilize the international fishery resources reasonably.