Research On Potential Assessment And Industry Development Of Biomass Power Generation In China

The biomass resources represented by crop straw is abundant in China, the biomass power generation has characteristics of good quality of power generated, high reliability and mature technology. It plays significant aspects in maintaining the safety of energy, optimizing energy structure, alleviating environmental pollution and promoting the economic development in the rural areas. Carrying on the research of potential assessment and industry development of biomass power generation in China systematically is significant not only theoretically but also realistically; it can guide the biomass power generation industry in China to develop rapidly and healthily, and promote the agricultural sustainable development and the ecological civilization construction. This article based on theories such as sustainable development, etc. and the economic analysis of industry development, analyzed the current development conditions of biomass power generation industry and the main problems in our country, assessed the power potential of agriculture and forestry biomass resources, proposed the area layout of industry development and the optimized location plan of the biomass power generation enterprises, predicted the industry development scale, determined the best installed capacity of biomass power generation enterprises, evaluated the industrial investment costs and comprehensive benefits, and provided the policy suggestions on the industry development of biomass power generation in China. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1) This article carried on the economic analysis to the biomass power generation industry development systematically based on the game theory and external theory. This article constructed the three parties’ repeated game model of farmers, power plants and government based on game theory, and carried on the game analysis of three parties’ benefit maximization. At the same time, on the basis of the characteristics of biomass power generation, this article compared and analyzed the biomass power generation and coal-fired power generation under the condition of market equilibrium, and provided the policy choice in the promotion of biomass power generation from the aspects of government subsidies policy and taxation policy.(2) This article assessed the power potential of agriculture and forestry biomass resources based on the improved ratio of crop residues to main products. This article selected nine major crops and forestry residues resources as the research objects, assessed the annual average power generation potential from 2011 to 2013, and proposed the optimized plan of industry development area layout. The results showed that the maximum power generation potential of agriculture and forestry biomass resources was 77590.66 MW, including the power generation potential of agriculture biomass resources 70465.35 MW and forestry biomass resources 7125.31 MW. On this basis, this article determined the regional layout of biomass power generation industry development in China: the preferred development areas, including Heilongjiang, Henan and Shandong provinces, and the second development areas, including Jilin, Xinjiang, Hebei, Anhui, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangxi, Jiangsu, Hubei and Inner Mongolia.(3) Based on the iterative gravity method, this article determined the optimal construction site of biomass power generation enterprises. Considering the key factors influencing the power plant operating costs, this article took Huantai County in Shandong Provience as an example, and determined the Tianzhuang town as the optimal construction site of the biomass power enterprise using the image processing function Regionprops of Matlab 7.4, the concrete coordinates was(508.55, 362.20).(4) This article predicted the development scale of biomass generation industry using the grey system theoretical model. The predicted results showed that by the end of 2015, the accumulated installed capacity of biomass power generation in China will be 11065 MW, the accumulated investment will be 99.27 billion Yuan, and the annual growth rate of biomass power generation industry from 2011 to 2015 is 11.67%; By the end of 2020, the accumulated installed capacity of biomass power generation in China will be 17449 MW, the accumulated investment will be 152.918 billion Yuan, and the annual growth rate of biomass power generation industry from 2016 to 2020 is 8.62%.(5) This article determined the best installed capacity of biomass power generation enterprises according to the collectable resource amounts within the different fuel gathering radius. Considering the transportation costs of biomass fuel and the collectable resource amounts, this article determined the best fuel gathering radius should be controlled within 50 km, 1×30MW biomass power plants could be constructed in the main producing areas of staple crops such as rice, wheat and corn, 2×30MW or 2×25MW biomass power plants could be constructed in the main producing areas of cotton and sugar cane.(6) This article predicted the tendency of the investment cost and evaluated the industry comprehensive benefits based on the learning curve model and analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results showed that: the learning rate of biomass power generation industry investment per unit megawatt is 10.96%, the learning rate of equipment price per unit megawatt is 11.89%, the industrial investment costs is decreasing gradually, the competitiveness is increasing gradually; the membership degree of industry comprehensive benefits to more strong is 0.4861, the comprehensive benefits of biomass power generation industry in China are higher, and which has good development prospects.(7) This article proposed the policy suggestions of biomass power generation power industry in China systematically combining with the theories and empirical analysis discussed in previous chapters, including: constructing the perfect fuel supply system; improving the industrial development layout and scale, realizing the coordinated development of industry upstream and downstream; strengthening the international cooperation, paying attention on the industrial technological research and development, reducing the industry investment costs; enlarging the policy support to the biomass power generation from the government.