Research On Biomass Energy Development Potential And Strategy Of Main Crops In China

With the development of economy,the acceleration of the process of social progress,such as the deterioration of the environment,the rapid growth of energy shortages and energy consumption become principal contradiction facing economic and social development of the world today.The excessive energy consumption to the traditional fossil energy shortage is becoming more and more prominent.Countries in their efforts to find new alternative energy sources,in order to cope with the energy crisis,solve the contradiction between supply and demand.Renewable energy biomass is the global use of energy fourth place ranking,is the only renewable carbon source,the traditional fossil energy is completely alternative,and due to the solar and wind energy development speed,and progress is restricted and nuclear energy faces have questioned the safety of background,biomass of China's current energy upgrade the importance of the increasingly prominent,agricultural biomass energy as the main body of biomass components,it is urgent to get a wider range and more reasonable development.China is a large agricultural country,the huge amount of surplus crops in various provinces and cities and agricultural by-products that agricultural biomass energy has great potential,rich in resources.To sort out the resource potential and distribution characteristics of different provinces and cities is the foundation of effective development.So the analysis evaluation provinces in the future the main crop biomass potential,and according to the characteristics of the distribution of resources make reasonable planning and construction,has great practical significance to its development.In this paper,the corresponding method to predict the future of the short-term(to2020),mid(2030),long-term(2050)corresponding to the provinces of the main crops available biomass potential;Based on the uncertain function of maintain soil returning degree and the unknown level of social development,the paper designed different incorporation ratio,different substitution rate(straw burning by other alternative)scenario,and comprehensively analyzed various scenarios in resource potential under different periods for various provinces of China in the future;then we combined with different specifications of generators required minimum amount of resources with direct fired power generation project,comprehended prediction of the main crops available biomass potential for various provinces of China,giving suggestions on developing directions and the construction of main crops available biomass potential,in order to provide references to reasonably develop main crops available biomass potential in different regions of China.Through the analysis,this paper draws main conclusions as follows:1.There are rich main crops biomass in our country,and the developing potential is huge.In 2020(short-term)output of the main crops will be 74779.15 million tons: the output of main crops in the provinces for the top six provinces are Henan,Heilongjiang,Sichuan,Shandong,Hunan and Anhui,Corresponding to the respectively output for 7092.82,6343.12,5419.55,536210,3927.31,3711.79 million tons,total output accounting for 42.6% of the total output of the country;In 2030,the total output of the main crops is to 7864.96 million tons.Compared to that of 2020,it has an increase of 386.81 million tons.By 2050,main crops in the total output will reach 86724.63 million tons,and the output for top six provinces of major crops has reached 47.3% of the country,while the bottom six provinces accounting for only 0.1%.We can see that the main crop growth and output in the country have obvious aggregate phenomenon.2.The main crop biomass energy development and construction under different situations is completely different due to the wide differences of the distribution of resources and the actual distribution of resource density uneven of provinces or cities in2020,2030,2050.Such as in 2020,under zero substitution rate,50% replacement rate scenario,low,moderate,high returning scene,we can give priority to the development of provinces for Henan,Shandong,Jiangsu,Anhui,Hubei and Chongqing.Henan is always potential and resources of the density of the largest province in any circumstance,followed by Heilongjiang,Shandong,Sichuan and Anhui;Shandong,Jiangsu,Anhui,Hebei,Chongqing,Jilin,Sichuan are resource density secondly.Planning for the future construction process can consider give priority to the development of these provinces.We can also develop technology sharing,sharing of resources to generate electricity,optimize corresponding construction configuration.In 2050,Beijing,Shanghai,Zhejiang and Fujian are not suitable for constructing any agricultural biomass direct combustion generator project for a long time in the future.5.The conclusion of the research also found that under returning ratio higher,at the same time,the decline in biomass energy potential will decrease,and resource density will decrease,which is not conducive to the biomass energy development.Combustion of high substitution rate is helpful to the improvement of biomass energy resource potential,development scale corresponding to the construction of generating units of main crop biomass in different provinces.It shows that with the development of society,the improvement of living standards,agricultural biomass development potential in the futurewill be more and more.At present,Researching results under different scenarios show that biomass energy returning ratio that is conducive to the development is more suitable than moderate returning ratio.And under this scenario,rate higher of the substitution biomass is,the more potential of biomass substitution is.