The Impact Of International Monetary System On The World’s Oil Trade Under The View Of Complex Network

The currency-trade circulation system formatted-between international trade and financial transactions has profoundly changed the world economic map.The international monetary system is the most fundamental institutional arrangement of currency-trade circulation system. Any open economies have to face the impact of the international monetary system in the trade and financial transactions, especially the "dollar-oil circulation system" are the most profound. With the continuous innovation of the international financial, oil and financial products are closely linked. The oil and the dollar are tied closely and it makes world oil trade detached from the trade level.Therefore, in the background of the international monetary system evolution, the world oil trade highlights its impact of financial attributes on commodity attribute. It also provides a new way for the study of international trade and international capital flows.At the same time, the network analysis method is becoming the research focus of various disciplines of science, and the network structure has become the key to understand the complex world. On the one hand, in recent years, more and more scholars use the complex network as the research tool to discuss the evolution mechanism of the topological structure and the development of international financial network. On the other hand, with the development of economic globalization, the mutual connection and mutual penetration of countries build closely international trade network. Therefore, on the basis of building the international monetary network system and the world oil trade network, this paper creatively connect the related research between the international monetary system and the world oil trade, and inspect effects of the externality and "core-periphery" structure of the international monetary system on world oil trade. It will help answearing question like whether the sovereign currency in the central position of the international monetary system will promote the psition and influence power of world oil trade. We provide new research perspective for national livelihood security related topic like Chinese RMB internationalization and the national oil.Based on the comprehensive review of related researches at home and abroad, this paper uses the theory of complex network analysis, and put forward the network externalization of "center-periphery" structure of international monetary system to oil settlement currency choice. Firstly, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of the international monetary system on the world oil trade. We discuss the mechanism of how currency system affects world oil trade from the perspectives of network externalization and "center-periphery" structure. Secondly, using oil import and export trade data, we construct the international oil trade network to analysis the structural characteristics and evolution process of no-weighted and weighted oil trade network. We also use block model to analyze the relationship of 59 countries’ international oil trade network. Thirdly, using the global investment data, we construct no-weighted and weighted financial integration network.to analyze its topology structure and evolution process. Meanwhile, we construct the exchange rate linked network by using the effective exchange rate of the International Settlements bank, and analysis the dynamic characteristics of exchange rate network. Based on the construction of the international oil trade network and the international monetary system network, we analyze how network externalization of international monetary system affect the world oil trade network based on QAP model and Motif method. Finally, in order to analyze the influence of the international monetary system on the world oil trade, we bring the network structure index into the gravity model, and analyze the effect of network "center-periphery" structure of the international monetary system on world oil trade.This study shows that the international oil trade network is not typical scale-free network, and few country occupies a core position in the international oil trade. The petroleum trade links between countries are increasing. In different oil trade countries group, there is a spillover effect. The first plate oil trade countries act as the engine to output oil to the two three four sector. On the whole, it presents the core periphery structure both in no-weighted and weighted financial integration network.. At the same time, the nodes of global investment relationship and the strength tend to increase. In the weighted network, China was not in the core countries in 2001, while China was in the center position with world investment increased, the strength of foreign investment relationship is also growing. Some developed countries, such as US and American, they are in the center of the global financial network, their financial investment agglomeration relationship tends to increase, and the network has ordered and strong heterogeneity. Meanwhile, the exchange rate connected network presents the "center-periphery" structure like the financila integration network. The difference is that the number of countries in core position and network contact are increasing. And the network structure change of exchange rate connected network is more easy.The unweighted and weighted network structure of the financial integration network and oil trade network structure analysis show that the fluctuation trend of correlation coefficient are the same. The consistency of evolution trend between the two networks verified the impact of the international monetary system on the petroleum trade network. Further, with the block model, we analysis the regional correlation of the international oil trade network and the international financial integration network. We find that in the international financial investment network, Saudi Arabia and other countries where the "periphery" forum and the international oil trade network in the oil trade spillover plate agreement. And the main benefit sector like US and other countries which benefit much from international finance coincidence with that in the world oil trade network. Peripheral countries through the export of oil and other natural resources to obtain international purchasing power, and then invest in the center of the country. It fomates the "center-periphery" structure of international financial integration network. QAP model analyze how international monetary network affects the world oil trade network. The regression analysis show that the financial investment activities help to reduce the cost of the oil trade. It has positive feedback effect on the international oil trade. steady growth of the world economy environment is a key prerequisite of exchange rate linked network effect. The financial crisis in 2007 lashed core national economic strength, and then the exchange rate linked network structure changed, the cost of international trade increased. It had a negative feedback effect on the oil trade.In addition, the empirical analysis of the effect of the international monetary system network on the world oil trade show that coefficient of financial integration network penetration strength and strength index and exchange network is significantly positive, while the coefficient of quadratic term Is significantly negative. Therefore, the impact of "core-periphery" pattern of international monetary system on the oil trade is "inverted U". The peripheral countries in the international monetary system, along with its international status raised, the growth of petroleum trade is from fast to slow, or even negative process.