The Evolution Of International Trade Network And It's Influencing Factors

The evolution of the international trade network is one of the important problems in the field of international trade,the bilateral flows of trade between countries and countries consist of the structure of international trade network and has a certain structural features of the network,This structure of network influences the development of the regional trade.By analyzing the characteristics of the international trade network's structure,we can explain the evolution of the international trade network on a macro perspective,we also can explain the spread of economic globalization and internationalization,the spread of economic crisis,the conduction of economic impact.Therefore,studying the discipline and reason of the international trade network has great significance to some current economic problems and help us to make preparation for potential crisis.On the basis of previous studies,we analyzed the structure's characteristics in the evolution of international trade network and the reasons of evolution.First,about the evolution of international trade network,this paper establishes 16 adjacency matrixs according to the international trade data of 2000-2015,using the method of social network analysis from degree centrality and betweenness centrality and clustering coefficient and neighboring average degree.Second,about the factors affecting the evolution of the international trade network,we calculate core of the network and use per capita GDP,FDI,high-technology exports,rail lines,unemployment,common language,country adjacent to or not,whether the WTO members,the financial crisis and the number of RTA to build the general linear regression Model.The conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,the international trade network is a negative matching network and exists so-called "rich people's club|.Majorities of countries have many trading partners but the intensity of trade is little.Second,the core of USA has been falling,while the core of some potential countries like Japan and Germany,Britain,France and the bric countries ha've been rising and the number of countries in the core position have been increasing,the international trade of network is towards a multi-polarization pattern of development.Third,the evolution of the international trade network is positively related to per capita GDP,FDI,high-technology exports,rail lines,common language,the adjacent countries and WTO and is negatively related to unemployment and the financial crisis.all of these conclusions satisfy level of significance test.Finally,on the basis of this article's conclusions and the angle of China,this article puts forward some relevant suggestions from the aspects of depth,breadth of the participation in global governance and the structure of trade and technology.