Household Energy Consumption And Carbon Emissions In The Process Of Urbanization:Mechanisms And Simulation Research

BackgroundAs climate change has put pressure on the world to get serious about reducing emissions, the Chinese government set higher targets for 2030 emission reduction. Rapid urbanization, household size shrinking, household number increasing, and consumption boosting and upgrading promoted by the rise of the middle class, will pose great challenges to achieve emission reduction targets.Research Object and MethodsTaking the basic needs of human being and the daily energy consumption of urban and rural residents as the starting point, the thesis uses IPAT model embedded with life-cycle, input-output model, LMDI method, fixed effect model, head-rate household projection, and system simulation, to analyze the dynamics of household carbon emissions from past to the future and the its mechanisms in the process of population and household urbanization. And then it discuss the potential of household carbon emission reduction in the national strategy, and the impact of population and household urbanization on it. In the research, multi-factor theory was put forward to explore household urbanization. The simulation model for analyzing the impacts of household urbanization on residential carbon emissions was based on the interaction among urbanization, aging and household size shrinking. In order to provide theoretical basis for national carbon emission strategy to make balance between development and emission, the thesis proposed three theoretical hypotheses which met the conditions of realizing the convergence of residential carbon emissions.ConclusionsFirst, EKC/CKC theory and urbanization-environment interaction theory can be applied to the dynamics of residential carbon emissions in the process of population and household urbanization in China.Second, residential carbon emissions will be approaching peak in the next 15 years, which means the residential sector can realize to make peak emissions by 2030. Third, the convergence of population and household growth can be an advantage and foundation for the national targets for 2030 emission reduction, but technological change and efficient policy are more important factors.Forth, population and household urbanization pose great challenges to carbon emissions, but these difficulties can be overcame by the optimization of energy mix and the decline of carbon intensity.Fifth, the convergence of household shrinking in the future is another advantage for China’s emission reduction.Sixth, the main driving effect of population and household urbanization will be in urban areas, so energy-saving policies should pay more attention to urban household. Seventh, the increasing of income has a significant positive impact on residential carbon emissions, so energy-saving policies should pay attention to consumption with high income-elasticity, such as oil usage by private cars and other transportation and communication commodities and services.Eighth, household urbanization will be accompanied with population aging both in urban and rural areas, so energy-saving policies should pay attention to health care consumption.