Study On Production Decision Model Of Large Coal Enterprise And Its Decision-making Support System Development

Since 2015, China’s coal industry has entered into a new normal featuring the coexistence of five phases: slackened demand growth, intensified environmental constraint, look-ahead productivity construction, high inventoryoperation and industry structural adjustment.In this period, the traditional production decision mode to expand production for profit is becoming no longer applicable so that the coal enterprises are facing an unprecedented dilemma of production decision. What’s worse, the weak market demand is forcing a production decision reform of coal enterprises. Based on previous studies, the paper uses the methods including scenarios analysis and genetic algorithm to construct the optimal production portfolio decision of multi-mine and multi-product scientifically. In addition, this article also develop the production decision support system of Datong Coal Mine Group, which can transform the theoretical decision model into the information tools to improve application and popularization of research achievements greatly. The contributions are mainly stated in the following aspects.In the optimization stage of production decision model, this paper puts many mines affiliatedto large-scale coal mine group as the research object, constructs a crossed, integrated, dynamic and market orientated coal mine production system with three stages of raw coal mining, washing and cleaning, transportation and marketing. Then this paper analyzes the influence factors and its conduction direction of production and cost decision in three stages, deduces the cost decision theoretical model and profit decision theoretical model, and sets the parameters of input variables, decision variables and constraints in model. Lastly, this paper respectively develops the profit maximization model and the cost minimization model of multi-mine and multi-product to realize the matrix production portfolio decision-making.Decision support system can help coal enterprises to make a standardized, accurate and efficient decision with the clear implementation process. In this paper, the characteristics of the production decision support system are as follows:(1) the system is formed by the prediction before production, production control and evaluation after production, which bringscoal enterprises the accurate and efficient production decisions;(2) the structure of three components architecture makes the relationship between model and data clearly;(3) using the simple and function-rich Matlab programming language and the safe, stable and elegant C# language for system programming can reduce the workload and difficulty of writing a custom function to realize low cost, high efficiency and wide applicability;(4) simulation function in model brings more flexibility for the production plan, the decision maker, on the one hand, can adjust a reasonable decision plan based on the system decision results and experience; on the other hand, he also can change the production input to simulate new production plans aiming at digging up the key production links.In the examples and application study, this paper chose the large coal enterprise of Datong Coal Mine Group(hereafter referred to as DT) and its 6 coal mines including Tashan Coal Mine, Tongxin Coal Mine, Sitai Coal Mine, Majiliang Coal Mine, Meiyukou Coal Mine and Xinzhouyao Coal Mineas the research objects, optimized the actual production decision in 2010-2014, and simulated its optimal production decision in 2015 uesed the designed cost minimization model of multimine and multi-product.The main study found that:(1) the results showed that for part of coal mines, there was a nonlinear relationship between the production variable costs and raw coal production in the raw coal mining phase in 2010-2014;(2) the optimal solution in 2010-2012 indicated that highway transport volume had a positive effect on the profit of Majiliang Coal Mine, Meiyukou Coal Mine and Xinzhouyao Coal Mine respectively, so DT should consider a targeted development of highway transportation potential and expand the nearby customer requirements;(3) the optimal solution by cost decision model stated that the optimized inventory plan brought 68% profit growth of 6 coal mines compared to the reality, which means DT should arrange the reasonable production plan to digest coal inventory scientific and orderly;(4) in the weak demand scenarios, change of mine production scenarios and cost control scenarios divided by the research target, the results showed the average elasticity coefficient of coal demand on expected profit was the biggest, as well as the artificial cost of raw coal mining phase;(5)this paper also developed a production decision support system for DT, and the system can assist decision makers to achieve the scientific and effective production portfolio decision through the scenario simulation function.