Research On Multi-attribute Evaluation Method Used In The Process Of Weaponry Argumentation

In the argumentation process of weapons and equipment, we often need to solve various evaluation issues, such as evaluation of weaponry projects, and evaluation of weaponry systems when we propose the planning scheme of weapons and equipment. An appropriate evaluation method to better solute these issues, is necessary to improve the argumentation quality of weapons and equipments, and helpful to get more efficient decision-making of weapons and equipment. And the development of multi-attribute evaluation method enhances theoreital foundation for us to study and solve the evaluation problems.With the help of multi-attribute evaluation theory and methods, this dissertation attempts to discuss weaponry projects evaluation, system evaluation of weaponry systems and experts'credibility evaluation in the argumentation process of weapons and equipment. The main contributions can be enumerated as follows.First, based on the analysis of weaponry argumentation process and the demands of weaponry projects evaluation, the dissertation puts forward to basic principles of evaluation attributes in argumentations of weaponry projects. According to the tactical and technical indices and combat requirements, the dissertation discusses the basic methods of evaluation implementing multi-attribute evaluation in the argumentation process of weaponry projects, and it also presents the multi-attribute evaluation model and method to operational performances. It solves the problem of comparison analysis between different technical realization schemes about the same weapon system. It lays the foundation for optimizing the weaponry argumentation scheme and improving the practicability of the method for evaluating weapons and equipment.Second, the dissertation analyses the basic connotation and characteristics of weaponry systems. Based on deep discussing about argumentation process of weaponry systems and the demand of weaponry evaluation, it puts forward to the "Four Main Factor Method" of determining attribute system so as to lay a foundation to strengthen utility effect and adaptability of weaponry systems multi-attribute evaluation. It also discusses the capacity evaluation and operational effectiveness assessment of weaponry systems and the level evaluation of weapons and equipment argumentation. It establishes the corresponding evaluation models and methods in order to provide methods and theoretical support for solving the evaluation problems in the argumentation process of weapons and equipment.Third, because of the importance of experts activity in an evaluation, this paper discusses in details the reliability of expert credibility, establishes the numberical models of experts credibility at three different evaluation types. According to the expert credibility, it uses clustering analysis method to arrange and classify the experts. It provides the basis to carve out advice from less reliable experts. It provides ideas and methods to make "closed-loop" management for experts group who often participate in the activities of weapons and equipment evaluation, and gives theoretical support for selecting expert group and improving the evaluation level of weapons and equipment.Fourth, it explores expert's abnormal preference in some competitive selection, gives the concept of "expert preference alliance, EPA" and probes into basic characteristics of the phenomenon of EPA. On the basis of analysing EPA's evaluation methods, it researches the main evidences of EPA, preliminary analyses how to determine the effectiveness of ultimately evaluation result in condition of expert preference alliance and provides the standard for further improving bid evaluation activitiesFinally, on the basis of concluding ideas, the paper points out some issues still needing a further study.