Research On The Performance Reliability Technology And The Application Based On Physics Of Failure

As one of the most important electromechanical products embedded in the attitude control system of satellite, the Momentum Wheel has the requirement of stable working within many years. For this kind of long life products of satellite, the traditional reliability technology is not suitable for the reliability modeling, design of experiments and estimation. In this dissertation, the performance reliability technology based on physics of failure is proposed. With the view of physics of failure, the performance reliability modeling method, design of experiments method and reliability estimation method based on information fusion are integrated to address the problems existing in the reliability work of long life electromechanical products of satellite. The main research production of this dissertation includes the following aspects:(1) Study the performance reliability modeling method based on the physics of failure, solve the reliability modeling problem of long life electromechanical products of satellite. Put forward a general degradation model with the polynomial coupling form based on stochastic model and deterministic model. Propose the MCMC method, two stages method and EM iterative method for parameter estimation based on performance degradation model. Give the life distribution modeling method based on performance degradation model, and build the bridge between the life distribution model and performance degradation model, which provide the theory support for the life distribution modeling.(2) Study the method for design of experiment based on performance reliability, solve the design of experiment problem of long life electromechanical products of satellite. Propose a general optimal method for design of experiment based on performance degradation. For the Weibull life product and Lognormal life product, the optimal design model and algorithm is proposed respectively. Demonstrate the rationality and validity of these method based on simulation.(3) Study the reliability estimation method based on information fusion, solve the small sample problem of long life electromechanical products of satellite. For different prior information derived from practice, the data mining method based on Bootstrap random sampling, the data mining method based on EMD-AR model random sampling and the data mining method based on parameter interval random sampling are proposed respectively for life data, performance data and expert judgments. Give the prior information fusion model based on Jensen-Shannon divergence, and build the global optimal weight model and algorithm based on the fusion model. For the Weibull life product and Lognormal life product, the performance reliability estimation method is proposed, and the Bayesian method is proposed for the performance reliability estimation based on prior information fusion model. (4) Based on above methods, study the reliability estimation for xx-type Momentum wheel. Determine that the failure mechanism of the Momentum wheel is the failure of lubrication system of bear component, and the main factor of failure is the volatilization and creep of lubrication. Build the physics of failure model in the view of microcirculation dynamic system of lubrication. Get the more high-precision estimation for the reliability of Momentum wheel, and show that the theory of this dissertation can address the practical problem for the reliability engineering of the Momentum wheel.