The Impact Study On Population To Resource-environment In China Based On The Consumption Level

The study on the relationship between population and resource-environment is very important to the geography science, natural resource science, economics and sociology, and also is a major aspect of the human-land relationship. Consumption is the ultimate aim of population acting on the resource-environment, and combines them together. In general, the higher the consumption level is, the bigger the intensity of population acting on the resource-environment is; alternately, the lower the consumption level is, the smaller the intensity of population influencing the resource-environment is. The study on population and the resource-environment based on the consumption level may contribute to the further cognition about their correlations, and provide the policy references for the natural resource use and environment protection.Taking China as the study object, this dissertation has researched on the relative status of impact between population growth and the consumption level improvement, and between urban inhabitants and rural inhabitants on the resource-environment for the period of 1957 to 2005 by per capita consumption expenditure and serial statistical data with unit person method and constructed consumption model respectively; studied on the impact status of the consumption level difference of China's 31 provinces (or autonomous regions) on the resource-environment in 2005 with hierarchical cluster analysis; has analyzed the impact of different consumption structure on the resource-environment since 1985, and compared the influence of the difference of regional consumption structure on the resource-environment among Shanghai, Henan, and Gansu in 2005; has evaluated the coupling relationship between population and resource-environment in China by analyzing the panel and serial statistical data for the period of 1985 to 2005 with principal component analysis and coordinated development degree (CDD) model; researched on the status of the resource-environment use by the different scenarios of the consumption level; and probed into the considerable consumption policies. The general results and cognitions are as follows:(1) During the period of 1957-2005, the population growth presented as a parabola trendline shown on the temporal series, and the increase amplitude is becoming smaller and smaller; the improvement of the consumption level presented as a three-cubed function shown on the temporal series, and the increase amplitude is increasingly becoming bigger and bigger. The population growth was the dominant factor of the resource-environment pressure before 1980, but the improvement of the consumption level has been the dominant factor since 1980. The percentage of resource-environment pressure that was induced by the improvement of the consumption level (but population is constant) initially fell and then rose, and kept 45% or so after 1980; in the meantime, the percentage that was induced by the population growth (but the consumption level is constant) initially rose and then fell, and decreased to 8.22% all along during the years from 1957 to 2005.(2) During the period of 1957-2005, the impact intensity of urban residents on the resource-environment varied from 1.064 unit persons to 6.63 unit persons, while that of rural residents varied from 0.343 unit persons to 2.347 unit persons. The impact intensity of one urban resident came up to that of three rural residents in general. The impact intensity of rural residents on the resource-environment in 2005 was fundamentally equal to that of urban residents in 1986.In 1957, per capita total impact of urban residents on the resource-environment was 1.0588×10~8 unit persons, while it was 37.2691×10~8 unit persons in 2005. It increased by 34.2 times. In the meantime, per capita total impact of rural residents on the resource-environment raised from 1.8752×10~8 unit persons to 17.4962×10~8 unit persons on the whole, which increased by 8.33 times. In 1957, the total impact of urban residents on the resource-environment accounted for 36.09%, while that of rural residents was 65.63%; up to the year of 1965, the percentage of the former fell to 34.37%, while the latter reached peak of the whole periods (65.63%); from then on, the former continuously increased to 68.05% of the year 2005, while the latter continuously decreased to 31.95%. The total impact of them on the resource-environment was almost the same during the period of 1993-1996.(3) To the intensity that population acting on the resource-environment, four sorts of regions might be divided in 2005, furthermore most of them were on the level of unit person. The consumption level of Shanghai and Beijing regions was the top in China, per capita the impact intensity on the resource-environment was double to the unit person, and they fundamentally were the net influx regions of resources; per capita the impact intensity in Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces was respectively equal to 1.5-2.0 unit persons, and they were the second largest impact regions on the resource-environment; per capita the impact intensity in Jiangsu, Chongqing, Fujian and Tianjin was almost the same as 1.0-1.5 unit persons, and they were the third impact regions; per capita the impact intensity of 23 provinces (or autonomous regions) of the rest were 1.0 unit person or so on the whole, and the impact intensity of them on the resource-environment was the same level.Provinces (or autonomous regions), located in the developed coastal areas in China, generally have the bigger impact on the resource-environment than the others. That is to say, the natural resources mainly flow from west to east and from north to south, but the environmental loads are shared in the whole China and are likely to be aggravated from east to west reversely. The main causes of imbalance of pressure on the resource-environment should be the difference of consumption level, the unmatchable resource exploitation and utilization, the imbalance of discharging pollutants, and the difference of moderate carrying capacity.To the total impact quantities that population acting on the resource-environment, four sorts of regions were divided in 2005, and the difference of them was notable. Guangdong province's the total impact quantities on the resource-environment accounted for 10.627% because of its more population and higher consumption level; the consumption level of Hebei, Hunan, Henan, Sichuan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shandong provinces was all above 1 unit person, and the average impact quantities were 5.74%; the average impact quantities of 17 provinces (or autonomous regions) including inner Mongolia, Jilin, Gansu and so on came up to 2.676% since the difference of their population and consumption level were bigger; since population and consumption level were both lower, the total impact quantities of Tianjin, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Ningxia, Hainan and Tibet were the smallest, and the average was only 0.616%.Provinces (or autonomous regions), having the bigger impact quantities on the resource-environment, are generally located in the eastern and central China, while the extended western China still is the weak impact areas on the resource-environment or final pressure. Provinces (or autonomous regions) are few, where the total impact quantities are more and less; alternately, those are many, where the total impact quantities rank the middle.(4) Since 1985, to the urban residents, the main aspects of the living consumption have changed from the clothing and food to the education, culture and recreation services, transport and communications, residence and so on. Accordingly, the influence on the resource-environment has also turned the less into the more. To the rural residents, the main aspects of the living consumption have transformed from the food, residence, and clothing to the food, residence, education, culture and recreation services, and transport and communications. The consumption structure has changed to a certain extent, but the change of impact on the resource-environment is not evident seen from the change of it.In 2005, the urban residents of Shanghai, Henan and Gansu all presented a consumption tendency, namely the consumption of education, culture and recreation services was increased gradually. They all had an intense impact on the resource-environment, especially the Shanghai's urban residents. Shanghai's rural residents principally influenced the resource-environment from the consumption of the residence, education, culture and recreation services, and transport and communication. The effect was severer. Henan and Gansu's rural residents chiefly affected the resource-environment from the consumption of the food, residence, education, culture and recreation services and so on. The effect was slighter. (5) During the period of 1985-2005, the integrated population development capability increased continuously through most of the study period with slight decline in the last few years. The integrated population development index (IPDI) reached peak in 1998 (0.8027). In the meantime, the integrated resource-environment status has generally declined with some annual fluctuations since 1985, while the integrated resource-environment utilization index (IRUI) has decreased from 0.5425 to -0.1059. The coupling relationship between population and resource-environment varied from extreme maladjustment to minor harmony, and then more recently shifted to extreme maladjustment. The maximum value of CDD (0.6199) was reached in 1994. Given this situation, it is difficult to achieve the goal of an all-round well-off society since China's per capita GDP was only 4044 yuan (at current prices) in 1994. The carrying capacity of the resource-environment is limited, while the demands of human beings are increasing, so programs for sustainable development face huge pressure in China. The direct cause of the quantitative variations of the coupling relationship is that population system and resource-environment system didn't continuously track each other from 1985 to 2005.(6) If China's average consumption reaches the consumption level of Shanghai of the year 2005, the total impact quantities on the resource-environment will be increased about 1 time according to the current utilization status. Furthermore, land resources may fundamentally meet the demands of the general nutrition standard, and the shortage amounts will not be too many up to the year of 2010; although they are able to be adjusted to a larger extent and achieved a dynamic balance between supplies and demands, land resources that meet people's demands of the grain and nutrition consumption will not still be optimistic by the year of 2020.(7) Finally, the macroscopical consumption polices including the moderate consumption, the transference payment consumption, the healthy consumption, the sustainable consumption, and the rational growth rate of consumption and so on have been forward in the paper.