On The Political Stability Problem In Sadt-Mubarak's Egypt

Political Stability implicates a political system's orderliness,continuity and controllability,it includes three aspects,i.e. political power's continuity or stability,power structure's rationality and political process' controllability. The political situation is divided into four grades:political disturbance,political unrest,political quasi-stability and political stability. How may we judge a political system is in the state of stability or in the state of unstability? According to Egypt's political reality,we put forward four concrete indicators:(1) a political community's stability and political legality;(2) frequency of reshuffling the cabinet;(3) people's movements or labor movements;and (4) frequency and fierceness of political violences which is launched by Egypt's Islamic radical groups. The basic conclusion from the study is:Sadt's Egypt (1971-1981) had been in political unrest,the initial stage of Mubarak's age (1982-1985) had been in political quasi-stability,Egypt had fallen into political unrest again from 1986 to the middle of 1990s,and Egypt had regained political quasi-stability in the late 1990s. The Ph. D. thesis is a thorough inquiry into Egypt's political stability problem in the age of Sadt-Mubarak from three fields,i.e. political institution,religious problem,economic and social problems. The author found that political institution is the essential factor to maintain political stability,Egypt's Islamic radical groups is a political mobilization and organization factor which may result in or aggravate political unrest even political disturbance,economic and social problems is the fundamental factor which affects the political stability. Fundamentally speaking,the abrupt all-around economic and social transformation had led to political unrest in Sadt's Egypt. In the meantime,Sadt's political reform and the political violences launched by Egypt's Islamic radical groups had aggravated the political crisis and political unrest. However,Egypt's political unrest from 1986 to the middle of 1990s is another story. That is to say,in that age,serious economic crisis had provided fertile soil to the spread and development of Egypt's Islamic radical groups. Integration of the religious factor and economic and social factor had led to more than 10 years' political unrest.