| China's high-speed passenger-only guided transport system (HSPGS) network is now still in planning. There are many important technical and economical decision-making themes to be studied. After comprehensive studying of research material relating to HSPGS in-and outside the country,the author try to tackle a series of decision-making problems about Chinese HSPGS project. Under the financial support from the MOR (ministry of railway) and the MOST (ministry of science and technology),a series of fruit are reaped,which include the traffic demand analyzing theory,optimal designing speed and constructing time,comparison of HSPGS technology systems and the theory of national economic assessment for transport investment. These research works refer to the theory and knowledge of civil engineering,transport engineering,macroeconomics,microeconomics,decision-making technique,quantitative economics and statistics. The following main achievements are useful for scientific and quantitative decision of China's HSPGS project:(1) On the theme of traffic demand market share of HSPGS line. Through analyzing the behaviors of passenger while they selecting travel model and the factors that impact their choice,a utility function to valuate the travel model is established,in which some important technical characteristics of travel model are for the first time introduced. Then a new analyzing model for calculating market share of different travel model is developed. With this new model man can avoid some unsuitability even illogicality that would occur in some traffic corridor case by using some traditional model such as Logit-model. The calculated results from this model are theoretically and logically reasonable and well fitted with the result of practical statistics.(2) On the theme of long-term characteristics of the traffic demand of HSPGS project. The impact of the rate of economic growth,the ameliorations of social economical structure and the progress of Tele-communication technique on the social traffic demand are discussed. A mathematic model describing the long-term characteristics of social traffic demand is set up with aid of economical and traffic statistics in -and outside the country. Considering the factors of further requirement of people to the traffic vehicle,the economic use of natural resources,the protection of environment and the prospect of transportation technology,the author puts forward a forecast for the long-term tendency of HSPGS market share and affords corresponding arithmetic. The calculating result with the case of Beijing-Shanghai HSPGS line shows that the traffic demand of HSPGS line would follow the tendency------at first increasesin accordance with the economical growth,then the increasing rate slows down because of higher requirement of passenger to travel quality,eventually even may decrease because more passenger shift to plane. This tendency is in accordance with that of ordinary merchandise. That is to say:cultivation-prosperous-saturation-decline.(3) Through theoretic analyzing and with aid of practical design results,the author have researched for the first time inland the relationship between design speed of HSPGS line and its economical indexes such as the traffic demand,engineering cost,operating expense,the cost for train-set purchasing and operating revenue. The quantitative results have settled a good foundation for the planning of HSPGS line to make scientific and quantitative decision.(4) On the theme of optimal design speed of HSPGS line. As a optimization problem,the objective function is supposed to be the financial internal revenue rate (FIRR). Annual revenue is deduced by cash flows that include engineering cost,operating expense,the cost for train-set purchasing,operating income and others. All cash flow items are dominated by the design speed. Thus,there would be a certain design speed,which would induce a maximal FIRR. The calculating example with the basic information of Beijing-Shanghai corridor reveals the existence of optimal design speed. The dedu...
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