China's Real Estate Cycle Empirical Research

This article makes comparatively systematic de-monstration study of our nation' s real estate cyc-le fluctuation , especially the objective existence, the form and the character of the fluctuation of the cycle, and offers some new insights concepts and policy suggestions. This article is divided into six chapters with the key argumentation conce-ntrated in Chapters Three Four and Five.Chapter One centers on the significance of the-ory and practice of the study of the fluctuation of the real estate cycle, and take cognizance of its objective inevitability as well as controlablity because of its fluctuation affected by variety fac-tors, So the government can keep the stable develop-ment of the real estate for a long time by control-ling its impacting factors.Chapter Two opens out the relations between theperiods of the real estate cycle and economy cycleby making demonstration study of its fluctuating relation. And studys the impacts on national economycaused by the real estate industry.Chapter Three is the most important of the art-icle. First, it studys the objective existence of thefluctuation of our nation' s real estate cycle by means of econometrics. Second, it studys nonsymmetry fluctuation and its fluctuation model by statistic analysis , and nonsymmetry fluctuation and its fluc-tuation model of the impacting factors, third, it st-udys the impacting factors by the numbers,especial-ly our state policy cycle leading to the real statecycle.last, it studys many factors colligately by econometric means, from correlativity to multiple linear regression, and founds and passes an econom-etric model by means of EVIEWS software , this modelcan supply a need of making policies by measuring its impacting factors The next part of the chaptermakes a comparatively study the fluctuation of the real estate cycle between our country and xiamen city,and it proofs the objective existence of the fluctuation of the real estate cycle once again.Chapter Four studys the relation between the price of the real estate and the output in the ind-ustry countries and the correlativity of the real estate cycle in the industry countries, and then it studys the relation of the economy cycle between our country and some industry countries before joi-ning WTO. in succession, it analyses, macrocosmicly and microcosmicly , the impact of the real estate cycle making by the WTO and brings forward some strategiesoChapter Five studys the serious results of our nation' s real estate foam, it studys the causing reasons of the foam and the procreant mechanism of it and distinguishs the foam from the ordinary cyc-le fluctuation, and puts forward a set of index toferetell the foam in advance.Chapter Six concludes the article with some newviewpoints and advices depending on foregoing studyand gives the purpose of the article. In fact,thefluctuation of the real estate cycle exists objec-tively, and the breadth and the length in its peri-ods are affected by variety factors and they can becontrollabled actually. So the leading actors, the government and corporations(the finance of the realestate and enterprises of the real estate) , how tocontrol the fluctuation of the real estate cycle by harmonizing and cooperating each other, can keepthe persistable development of the real estate by controlling its impacting factors. In my opinion, innovation is the only headspring to keep the pers-istable develoment in the real estate.