| Economic cycle fluctuation is the concomitant phenomena of the economic growth process; this impersonal economic rule has been testified by many countries' economic growth and development process. As a part of macro economy, real estate economy follows this rule inevitably. Reviewing the development process of real estate industry in China, it not only embodiments obvious seasonal fluctuation, possesses the fluctuation character only owned by China during its periods of economic transformation; moreover, its fluctuated range is so big that it hurts the macro economy seriously. So, envisaging the phenomena of seasonal fluctuation of real estate industry in China, analyzing the internal factors and exterior impacts determining the seasonal fluctuation of real estate industry, putting forward real estate industry policy to handle seasonal fluctuation and avoid strong fluctuation, is very important to maintain continual, stable, healthy development of real estate industry in China which is still on the incipient step, both on theory and practice.About the theory of real estate cycle fluctuation, it follows the research method of from general to concrete. Firstly, according to general theory of economic cycle, economic fluctuation accents the departure of factual economic growth curve and the growth curve of tendency. Economy cycle accents the process of economic expand and economic contract appear alternatively and repeatedly. But economic fluctuation is the basic form of economic cycle, so economic cycle or economic cycle fluctuation is the state of macro economic expand and abstract appear alternatively, wave crest and trough circulates round, economic recovery and depression circulate round. There four phases: boom, decline, depression and recovery, during the process of economic cycle fluctuation, and these four phases have different economic character. Generally, we use extend, height, depth, average location, expand length, to describe the character of economic cycle fluctuation; secondly, using the concepts and relationship of economic fluctuation and economic cycle in real estate industry, educing that real estate cycle fluctuation or real estate cycle is a form of real estate economic fluctuation, it's also an economic phenomena of real estate industry level fluctuates according to growth curve of tendency, but it appears alternated contract and expand two phases and recovery, boom, decline, depression four phrases. At last, it expatiates the relationship of economic cycle fluctuation and real estate cycle fluctuation, on side, their operation orbit almost tally, but on the other side, there are deviation and time difference.From the angle of economic cycle theory to make positive analysis on real estate cycle fluctuation in China is the point of departure to study the problem. Firstly, choose several economic index such as real estate produce level and deal level to describe the development process of real estate in China, the adopt the method of many items synthesize to mark off 1986-1990, 1991-1996 and 1997-2002 three cycles. On this base, compare the real estate cycle fluctuation and the economic cycle fluctuation of the same time in China, we can found that, the real estate cycle fluctuation is "high- steep" style, and the general situation is " fluctuate the type". It indicates that the average speed of development of real estate industry in China is fast, but its stability is bad. And form the fluctuation of real estate industry itself, it has such characters: the cycle length is very anomalous, the frequency of issue is high; the fluctuation range is wide; there are two kinds of cycle styles, classic style and development style, the ratio of expand and contract is low. At last, it's the analysis the internal character of real estate fluctuation in China, there are such problems as lack consume demand, the simple expansion or constringency of the quantity type; product inclination motion; obvious of policy period type motion; the market mechanism is not perfect; district development...
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