Accumulate, Expand, Contract

For a long time,Russian diplomacy has attracted much attention with its tough style,and "expansion" is considered to be the main theme of Russian history.Checking history carefully,there are many cases of "hiding one's capacity and biding time" in Russian diplomacy.This article mainly studies the regular pattern of Russian diplomacy.The core issue is whether the phenomenon of "expansion" and "contraction" in Russian diplomacy is presented in cycles.If so,what is the reason for this pattern and how to understand the Russian diplomacy today.In order to solve the above problems,this article introduces the cycle theory as the basis of epistemology.The linear view of history has always been the mainstream in historical research,while the view of history from the periodic perspective pays more attention to the phenomena that occur regularly in history.In the field of humanities and social sciences,economics is the earliest and effective discipline to introduce the concept of cycle and develop the theory of business cycle.Subsequently,this research result was introduced into the discipline of international relations,which helped to develop international political cycle and then the concept of diplomatic cycle.The diplomatic cycle refers to the repetitive laws of a country's foreign policy and behavior in long-term historical practice.Cycle theory provides a new perspective for explaining the rules of Russian diplomacy.Through analyzing the history of Russian diplomacy from the 9th to the beginning of the 21 st century,this article believes that there are four cycles in the history of Russian diplomacy,and it evolves alternately in three stages of "accumulation-expansion-contraction".In the expansion stage,foreign actions can successfully achieve the goal of outward expansion,mainly in the form of territorial expansion,victory in war,tough diplomacy,and a strong interest in overseas affairs.In the contraction phase,foreign behaviors fail to achieve the expected goals,which are often accompanied by war failures,territorial loss,and diplomatic benevolence.The accumulation stage is between expansion and contraction stages,and can be regarded as a prelude to the expansion stage,which mainly manifests itself as winning or losing in wars,regaining lost territory,and slower expansion.The division of Russia ' s diplomatic cycle is mainly based on the qualitative analysis of major historical events.The quantitative analysis of historical changes in territory and war data not only confirms the results of the qualitative analysis to a certain extent,but also brings further details.New discoveries were made,such as Russia's different expansion processes in three directions: east,south,and west.The formation of Russia's diplomatic cycle is mainly related to its national strength.The "accumulation-expansion-contraction" of diplomacy is roughly consistent with the "rise-prosperity-decline" cycle of state.But it is not absolute.The reform periods in history were usually accompanied by a diplomatic contraction,which adds small fluctuations to the cycle.The world economy also has an impact on Russia's diplomacy: during the upward period of the world economy,there often was a period of contraction in Russian diplomacy,and the phenomenon of expansion is more common in the downward period.This is because major technological innovations,the main driving force of the world economy,took place in Russia later than in Western countries,and the main reason for technological lag is its own internal problems.The cyclical law of "impact selection-unique cultural formation-cultural self-confidence" presented in the history of Russian culture corresponds to the diplomatic cycle,revealing the reasons for the diplomatic cycle from the perspective of political culture.