Theory, Method And Its Application Of Investment Project Post Evaluation

With the development of the reform in investment and financing system, investment project post evaluation has become a consequential tool or method of improving investing performance and increasing decision-making standards. At present, the status quo of investment project post evaluation, which has no theoretical system of its own, but just follows that of investment project evaluation, can't adapt to its internal requirements as well as the marketing requirement during "the tenth five years". By reviewing the current researches on this field both at home and abroad, the dissertation makes a detailed and systematic study with sufficient exemplifications about the theory, the methodology and the application of investment project post evaluation.Firstly, by comparing the different concepts, scopes and the internal mechanisms of investment project post evaluation both at home and abroad and also by reviewing the present theories and methodologies of investment project post evaluation, the dissertation points out that China still lacks a full and normative estimate system, so that theory needs to be linked up with practice, the content to be adjusted, the methods to be innovated, and the manipulate ability to be built up.Secondly, the theory of control-feedback and the theory of sustainable development constitute the theory of dynamic management based on sustainable development, which approaches theoretical foundation of investment project post evaluation with the theory of cost-benefit analysis. Four important methodologies-the methodology of logical framework approach, the methodology of statistics and forecast, the methodology of with and without comparison, and the decision-making tree-are being discussed, too. A comparison between Eastern and Western methodology of evaluation is also made. The three-stage management system and mechanism are discussed, too.Thirdly, the project process is full analyzed in the dissertation. The method of dynamic evaluation based on sustainable development is introduced into project management. The concept and testing method of management efficiency are introduced based on theory of control-feedback. After comparing financial evaluation with national economy evaluation, the indicators-system is enlarged, the shortage is pointed out and mended, and the shadow price-system is discussed. In view of the deflation in China, a research is also done in the treatment method of the indexes of investment project post evaluation in an effort to eliminate the effects of deflation. The determining factors of index and its quantitative in social impact assessment are discussed. The key points are methods of eco-benefits-valuing, methods for determining key pollution factors in environmental quality evaluation and EIA(Environmental Impact Assessment, EIA) efficiency. Based on the theory of sustainable development, system of sustainable analysis, benefit evaluation system and sustainable equation, new trails of ecology culture are put forward and project risk evaluation is analyzed.Fourthly, a new method to normalize attribute-value of assessment-indicators is proposed and the assessment-indicators quotient, the indicators-system and the rationality are discussed in the synthetic post evaluation. The algorithm model of triple-hierarchy BP ANN (Back Propagation Artificial Neural Network) is constructed as the basis of Multiple Attribute Post Evaluation of investment project. Combined the fuzzy optimum selection theory with ANN theory, the principle and realization based on neural networks with fuzzy optimum selection of MAE (Multiple Attribute Evaluation) are analyzed in detail, and the neural network with fuzzy optimum selection model are formed. Example shows the obtained result is more satisfied and the innovation of method is proved.Finally, with the exemplification of two water conservancy projects, this paper does an appraisal of economy and synthetic post evaluation, including management, effect, sustainable and comprehensive evaluation, to test the theory, the methodol...