Font Size: a A A

Mechanism Generated By The Modern Financial Crisis And The International Transmission Mechanism Study

Posted on:2004-01-16Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:H AnFull Text:PDF
GTID:1116360122475799Subject:Finance
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
History records many financial crises, but mankind has never been so close and so frequent to them as today. So soon after European Monetary System Crisis in 1992-3, Mexican Financial Crises crashed in 1994-5. Michel Camdessus, the managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, described the Mexican peso collapse of 1994-5 and the international rescue effort that is prompted as "the first financial crisis of the 21st century". Little did he realize that with the millennium still a couple of years away, it would be followed so soon by so many more. Numerous countries have been affected by the outbreak of "Asian Flu" in 1997. Until now, Turkey, Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil are keeping struggling with the repeated breakout of financial crises. All these crises, especially the first three worldwide financial crises have a feature of high frequency, over economic period, quick transmission, high contagion, the double crash on bank and currency, more occurrence in emerging market countries and speculation attack in currency as blasting fuse, which makes them much difference from the traditional crises. While, along with the crises, the rapid development of the financial industry, the deepening of the economics and financial globalization have integrated the world as "an earth village". What is the mechanism of their genetic and transmission? Are there any links between the above two facts? What are the effective ways to the prevention of the financial crises?A significant body of literature has emerged on the recent financial crises. The literature in this area mainly focuses on primarily explanations to the onset and propagation of a financial crisis, e.g., over-indebtedness and deflation to financial market turbulence (Irving Fisher, 193 3 ) , uncertainty and expectation to economic turmoil (John Maynard Keynes,1936) , the financial instability hypothesis to the fragility of finance (Hyman RMinsky, 1982) and "manias, panics and crashes-a history of financial crises" written by Charles P. Kindleberger ( 1978) to provide a history frame for his crises study. We also have three generations of models to explain financial crisis within the recent 20 years, which are Krugman - Flood -Garbor Model (1984, 1988 ), Obstfeld Model (1986,1995 ) and the third generation model like Moral hazard by Krugman and so on. Some scholars such as Masson (1998), Calvo & Reinhart (1996), Baig & Goldfajn (1998), Forbes & Rigobon, Eichengreen et al. (1996 ) , Glide & Rose (1999 ) have been making great effort to identify the contagion of financial flu.From one crisis to another, we learn how to extend the list of potential weakness of finance. The European crises had shown the role of high unemployment in reducing the ability of authorities to repeal speculative attacks. The Mexican crisis has shown the danger of sovereign borrowing in foreign currency. The Asian crisis now leads to emphasize financial market imperfections. While these explanations seem plausible, there is still a missing link. We still know little on contemporary financial crisis both in theory and practice. The theory research goes far backward than the facts. Based on the above facts, this paper provides an overview of the contemporary financial crises to examine how financial crisis is bred, how is it transmitted internationally, and how can it be prevented. Thus the paper develops a frame of " onset - transmission - prevention " to explore the contemporary financial crisis by incorporating analysis into economic globalization and differentiating it from the traditional financial crises.China is well known for her success to the prevention of Asian Crises. Now, as a new member of WTO, China will be more open to the world, is there any threat to China's financial security? How can China avoid crises successfully in her developing course? This dissertation also shows great concern on these issues.The dissertation consists of eight chapters.The first chapter is an introduction part, comprising a brief background of the study, literature review of...
Keywords/Search Tags:Contemporary financial crises, Generic and transmission mechanism, Prevention, China's Financial security
PDF Full Text Request
Related items