The Futures Market In China's Grain Circulation System Utilization Research

The reform of grain circulation system is a hot issue in the research of China's grain problem. We have started our grain circulation system reform since 1978, but it is still on the route to success. Except many defects in the spot market, the lack of efficient agricultural product futures market price signal to guide the production and management of grain is also an important reason for the reversion of the reform. In fact, the initial reason for the establishment of futures market in China is to stabilize grain production and circulation, providing service to the government's macro-manipulation of grain production and circulation. The futures market can not solve all the problems confronted in the course of the reform, but it can play its unique role in the price discovery and price risk hedging.Along with the thorough advance in the newly round of grain circulation system reform, it is estimated that the purchase and distribution market of grain will be fully opened in 2004,the grain producers and proprietors will face the market much more directly; after the entrance into WTO, the linkage between global and domestic market becomes more closely and deeply, all these factors make the risks in the grain market larger and larger. So it is imperative to do some research in the utilization of agricultural products futures market, hoping it will play its innate functions, such as price discovery and hedging, in the newly round grain circulation system reform in China.The dissertation concerned closely with the utilization of futures market in the grain circulation system reform. The paper is divided into four parts.The first part is the chapter one, also is the preface of the paper, expatiates the research background, aim, status quo, contents, framework, research method, innovation and deficiency.The second part includes chapter two, three, four. Chapter two makes a systematic review of our country's grain circulation system reform. Based on chapter two, Chapter three analyzes the reasons for the reversion of grain circulation system reform in our country, the author thinks that, from the deep-seated reasons, the imperfectness of the price formation mechanism in grain sector, the lag of the development of the main body in grain market, the unharmony of benefits distribution mechanism between the production and vendition areas, the lag of adjustment mechanism in grain import&export, are all reasons for the reversion of our country's grain circulation system reform, and also, all these reasons are closelyconnected with the lack of efficient agricultural product futures market. Chapter four discusses the development course of our country's futures market, then analyzes the existing problems in the futures market. From the analyses in part two, the author concludes that: the lack of efficient agricultural product futures market is the main reason for the reversion of grain circulation system reform in China.The third part includes chapter five, six, seven. Chapter five expatiates the function of the futures market, then discusses the roles it can play in our country's grain circulation system reform. Chapter six makes an empirical study on the function of our country's futures market. Chapter seven makes an empirical study on the efficiency of our country's futures market. From above analysis, the author concludes that: our country's soybean futures market has entered into the weak-form efficient stage, and our country's agricultural product futures market becomes more and more efficient, it is the time to utilize our agricultural product futures market to promote the newly round grain circulation system reform.The fourth part includes chapter eight, based on the deep analyses of the above two parts, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the newly round grain circulation system reform by fully utilizing our country's agricultural product futures market.