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Game Business Cycle Theory : A Research On Synchronization And Non-synchronization Of World Business Cycle

Posted on:2005-09-14Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y M ZhouFull Text:PDF
GTID:1116360125455134Subject:International Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
On the basis of the game relation between each county of the world, this paper proposes and confirms a different hypothesis, which is that synchronization of World Business Cycle (WBC) has been less and less, although synchronization of Regional Business Cycle has been stronger and stronger. A series of game models of bi-Countries have been set up to understanding synchronization and non-synchronization of WBC, which is called Game Business Cycle Theory (GBCT). And the core of mechanism of WBC has also been presented, which derives from fluctuation of consumption, investment, payout of government, imports and exports, etc. Moreover, it further develops the new hypothesis with applications along with the development of logic of GBCT. Therefore, this paper consists of four sections including ten chapters:Section 1, including introduction, chapter 1 and chapter 2, proposes the hypothesis. In the chapter of introduction, the background, significance, idea and means of GBCT have been given out. And the essential category of GBCT has also been given out, which is taken as a jumping-off point of this paper. Chapter 1 has discovered the fact that regionalization and globalization of WBC has a new trend, which is supported by the data of 7-Group, European Union (EU) and North America Free-trade Area (NAFTA). And chapter 2 has taken a careful review of literature of synchronization and non-synchronization of WBC, and the given out a hypothesis of this paper, which is based on these papers of predecessors.Section 2, including chapter 3 and chapter 4, sets up two models to support and confirm the hypothesis. In chapter 3, a two-country game model has been set up to explain the mechanism of WBC, which transmitting-channels is international trade. At the same time, a bridge between a theoretic model and an econometric model has been set up, and the existence of non-synchronization of WBC has been proved by data.It is more and more important that international investment and international hot money with development of securitization of world economy. So a game model has been set up with an introduction of a special utility function of government, from which may deduce a dynamic economic equation of WBC. So, the mechanism of financial crisis or economic crisis, transmission of crisis, and the cause of the WBC have been proved by this equation, which includes some variables of policy, such as monetary policy, financial policy and trading policy, etc. And then a case study of WBC has given an evidence for GBCT, in which the relation between Mexico policies and WBC has been proved, too.Section 3, namely chapter 5 and chapter 6, confirms and develops the hypothesis. Chapter 5 is a connecting link between the preceding and the following chapter, which is both the logical extending of section 2 and the theoretical preparation of chapter 6. A dynamic game model is a framework that can explain the fact that the regionalization and globalization of WBC develops with the regionalization and globalization of world economy. So, the law of WBC has been discovered by this model, which can give an answer of formation of synchronization andnon-synchronization of WBC.Chapter 6 constructs a measure model of synchronization and non-synchronization of WBC, which educes an econometric model naturally. The hypothesis of this paper has been testified by the panel data, which is derived from the synchronization and non-synchronization of 6-Group and EU. Therefore, The hypothesis of synchronization and non-synchronization of WBC has been proved completely, which is a core or foundation of GBCT.Section 4, including chapter 7 and chapter 8, both is a countermeasure of WBC and application of GBCT. In chapter 7, based on the conclusion of section 1, 2 and 3, the international harmonization is a very important obligation of government to avoid the internecine trap of world economy, which the synchronization and non-synchronization of WBC can be effected by deeds of government, such as economic policy, monetary policy, financial policy and trading...
Keywords/Search Tags:Synchronization and Non-synchronization, World Business Cycle, International Harmonization, Regionalization and Globalization, Synchronization of International Institution, Game Business Cycle Theory
PDF Full Text Request
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