A Study On The Business Cycle Synchronization Between China And Countries Along "One Belt,One Road"

After the international financial crisis in 2008,China's economic growth has been facing both domestic and international pressure.China's economy has entered the socalled new normal period in which the growth rate has gradually declined to a stable level.Meanwhile the world economy has also witnessed a downturn,the United States and other countries intend to change the current trading rules to form regional trade protection against the trend of economic globalization.In 2013,Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the “One Belt,One Road” initiative,which meets the needs of the trend.The initiative passed from two lines through the sea and land to the Eurasian continent,covering the Southeast Asian economy and the Northeast Asian economy,and finally merged into Europe to form a general trend of economic integration in the Eurasian continent.Since “One Belt,One Road” initiative covered 64 countries in Asia,Europe and Africa,now covering even more countries,they share limited resemblance within economic,cultural and trade fields.Therefore,business cycle synchronization between China and the countries along the “One Belt,One Road” are expected to be found out.Business cycle synchronization refers to the convergence of direction and amplitude of each country's economic cycle in a specific period.It is of great significance to find out the business cycle synchronization between China and the countries along the “One Belt,One Road” initiative,as it is theoretically supplement to the related research of both “One Belt,One Road” and “business cycle synchronization”,it will also help point out a clear definition of China's own position,and help us to better understand the economic development in order to provide more convincing political recommendations.This paper applies HP filter,spearman's rank correlation coefficient,vector autoregression model and impulse response function to GDP growth rate in 1996-2017 of the 53 relevant countries to test the business cycle synchronization between China and the countries along “one belt and one road”.According to the analysis,we can see that different countries share different business cycle synchronizations with China,and some of them show uptrend while some of them show opposite trend.Build on the analysis,this paper arises suggestions like applying suitable policies according to different countries,decentralization of trade dependence and adjusting the import and export structure for the sustainable development and so on.