Research On The Generation And Transmission Mechanism Of The International Business Cycle

International business cycle, as an inherent and regular phenomenon in international economic operating, presents the characters of periodic prosperity, recession, depression and recovering. Many kinds of exogenous shocks interact through international economic association and together generate the international business cycle.Chapter one is a comprehensive survey of the theories of international business cycle, emphasizing the foundation of international business cycle theory is real business cycle theory. This chapter surveys the existed research methods of the generation and transmission mechanism of international economic cycle, and put forward to the theory framework of this research.Chapter two tries to demonstrate the existence of the international business cycle, using the measure of statistics and the method of demonstration. Based on the systemic searching of the phenomenon of international business cycle in certain period, this chapter describes the character of each international business cycle, such as volatility, synchronization, durability, symmetry, etc.Chapter three and four, with the measure of qualitative analysis, try to explore the generation and transmission mechanism of each international business cycle, based on describing the process of each international business cycle in detail. These two chapters also confirm the generating factors of international business cycle, including resource supply, technological progress, preference change, national macroeconomic policies regulations, etc. These factors generate external shocks including worldwide common shocks, nation-specific shocks, industry-specific shocks, idiosyncratic shocks, etc. The transmitting channel includes international merchandise trade and international financial trade, etc.On the basis above, through theory modeling and econometric inspection, chapter five qualitatively portrays the generation and transmission mechanism of the international business cycle. It also distinguishes the comparative importance in generating the international business cycle among worldwide common shocks, nation-specific shocks, industry-specific shocks, idiosyncratic shocks. And this chapter introduces FDI and transnational security investment, and also proves that they play an important role in generating international business cycle.Chapter six, using two econometric measures that are Granger Causality Test and Cointegration Test, demonstrates the co-movement of international macroeconomic regulations. And based on its impact on GDP, this chapter demonstrates the relationship between the co-movement of international macroeconomic regulations and international business cycle, and also explains these relationships from themechanism aspect.At last, chapter seven put forward to the coordination mechanism of international business cycle and also makes out a former thinking of the national economic security strategy from the perspective of international business cycle.As a whole, using the analytical framework Two-Country and Two-Goods based on the international macroeconomic dynamic theory explores the generation and transmission mechanism of the international business cycle. Through the channels of international merchandise trade and international financial trade, depending on the media factors, such as the money rate, the goods relative price, the margin revenue rate of capital, etc., all external economic shocks' interactions together generates international business cycle. Based on international business cycle's economic welfare effects, international macroeconomic regulating interaction behaviors and then the coordination of international business cycle can notably promote international economic welfare.