Research On Risk Control Of China's Futures Market

The theme of this thesis is about risk control in China's futures market. The thesis tries to make mechanism and process of the risk control systematization on the basis of former research. According to a logic process of risk discrimination, risk measure, risk precaution and risk management, the writer compares the self-regulating management system and margining system between China and foreign countries. Then, writer brings forth the frame of risk control system of futures market in China by using the successful experience of foreign countries.This thesis consists of eight chapters.The first chapter is Introduction, which explains thesis' research theme, research thinking, structure, research method, innovation and its drawbacks.The second chapter is Document Summary, which successively introduces predecessors' research achievement according to historical order and is mainly composed of three sectors. The first sector introduces Marx's theory about market risk, credit and fictitious economy, etc. The second sector introduces west economic theory about price fluctuation, speculation and risk control fundamentals, etc. The third sector introduces mathematical analysis about price fluctuation by virtue of financial engineering. Then, writer introduces present research situation on risk control and analyses future tendency of risk control research.The third chapter is Risk Discrimination. In this chapter, writer explains specific characteristics of risk in the future market and distinguish risk of future market. According to category method of systematic risk and non-systematic risk. After that, writer explains risk source of Chinese future market, distinguishes speculation and over-speculation and gives a new explanation for the tradition view that speculation is the main cause of Chinese future market risk. Last, writer explains how to discern risk of future market.The fourth chapter, Risk Measurement, explains and analyses price fluctuation of China's futures market according to ARCH model. Comparing bean future contracts in the Dalian Commercial Exchange with that in theCBOT, writer explains risk range of price fluctuation in the China's futures market.The fifth chapter is Risk Precaution. In this chapter, writer introduces risk precaution system of Chinese future market and precaution targets. Then, according to S0307 contract of DaLian Commercial Exchange, writer verifies the reasonableness of these precaution targets and puts forth three conceptions about risk precaution target system: normal value, the first class precaution range, the second class precaution range.The sixth chapter is Risk Management. In this chapter, from three respects writer compares risk manage principles and actual processes of different mature markets and brings forth risk manage methods of Chinese future market. Then, writer gives WT309 future event in the ZhengZhou Commercial Exchange as a example, analyses how ZhengZhou Commercial Exchange deals with this event by virtue of relative process and points out that the combination of principle and flexibility of risk manage embodies that Chinese future market risk management has become mature.Chapter 7 is International Comparison of Self-regulating Management System of Futures Market and Margining System. Firstly, the writer introduces present situation and development tendency of self-regulating management system of mature futures market in abroad and compares them with Chinese. Then, writer points out which experience we can learn from abroad. Margining system is the most important part of futures market as a risk control system. The writer compares it between China and foreign countries thoroughly.Chapter 8 is Building Risk Control System of China's Futures Market. In this chapter, the writer introduces the present situation of Chinese risk control system and analyses the short points of it in detail. The writer provides some improvement advice for these short points. At last, the thesis emphasizes to construct risk control system of future market that really matches...