The Potential Analysis And Experimental Study Based-initiative Decision Theory

Being another theoretical system of decision, the decision theory of the initiative, which has been founded on the basis of studying and inheriting the legacy of traditional decision theories of our country, is other than rational decision theory of the West. As one research direction of the decision theory of the initiative, tendency analysis that has brought the traditional decision thought up to the level of modern science has set up a set of effective methods of quantitative analysis. These innovations of the article are as follows:1. The concept of tendency has been defined in the operation of economic system. The author has proved the disparities existing of tendency and universality in economic space, which establishes the position in the systematic theoretical system of modern economy of research work.2. After introducing the effect coefficient of tendency to signify as the measurement of the tendency, the author has established the computing technology of the tendency result coefficient and discussed its economic meaning from many kinds of angles. Through leading into the effect coefficient of tendency, the author has changed general econometric models into models of tendency analysis, which has resulted in productivity model and competitiveness model. More improvement has been made in the present system forecast, the measurement of systematic operation efficiency and some other systematic analytical methods. A more complete methodological system has been formed preliminarily.3. Having united the research of systematic generality and individual character of the samples, the author has created a brand-new analytical method and led out a batch of useful achievements about system analysis. For example, the method of calculating of the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress has been improved in an all-round way, which makes the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress calculated out gear to actual circumstances more with the change of numbers steady and rational.4.The author has made the empirical research that has proved that the theory of the tendency analysis is feasible, and has caused some valuable discoveries. For example, in analysis of long-term consumption of U.S.A. from 1929 to 1976, the judgment put forward by some experts that the marginal propensity to consume rises with time is untenable.