Uncertainty And Enterprises' Forewarning

Enterprises are faced with various kinds of uncertainties in their existence and development. The uncertainties have been bringing about the enterprises not only opportunity but also threat. The existing theories focus on the research of uncertain factors or partial risks facing enterprises. They are incomplete and not systematic, nor do they establish the effective forewarning mechanisms for enterprises. I think, the enterprises must strengthen their forewarning awareness in the face of risks and opportunity resulting from uncertainties and set up effective forewarning mechanism in order to identify different uncertainties and threats or chances brought forth.On the basis of combing the uncertainty theories and forewarning theories, I divide the uncertainty which enterprises face into three categories: external uncertainty, policy uncertainty and internal uncertainty. Correspondingly, it is divided into three kinds that corresponding uncertainty impact: the external uncertainty impact, the internal uncertainty impact and policy impact. In conformity with it, enterprises must set up three kinds of forewarning modes: the external forewarning mode, the internal forewarning mode and the policy forewarning mode.I think further, the enterprise system is a typical non-linear one, of which endogenous uncertainty impacts the enterprise system itself and the external environment of the enterprise system. For being convenient to study, I consider the enterprise system as the linear system, and adopts the approach of state space description to analyze the enterprise system, establish the system of enterprise's forewarning index on this basis, then analyze the dynamics of the enterprise system and structure the enterprise system shift matrix.Enterprise forewarning,as the endogenous result during the process of dealing with various kinds of enterprises uncertainly, is transferred through the inside channel of the enterprise system and forms the output of the business system progressively .This output in turn leads to economic fluctuation ,which at the same time gives a shock enterprise system again.I analyze various kinds of uncertainty around enterprise, uncertainty impact and influence, dynamic analysis of the enterprise system, laws of police in advance of enterprises, enterprise forewarning system and its subsystem structure, enterprise forewarning implement procedure, implement means, implement mode , enterprise suitability of forewarning ,etc, and then construct enterprise's forewarning system.The dissertation has three parts, divided into eight chapters as following:First part presents the purpose of writing the dissertation and studys the current situation both at home and abroad. First part includes the introduction and chapter of theory survey. The introduction explains mainly the writing background, writing thought, research approach, structure of the thesis and innovated points . The theory survey part will carry on the introduction to the relevant theories, such as existing uncertainty theories and forewarning theories etc. both at home and abroad.Second part focuses on systematic structure of enterprises' forewarning, made up of the third, forth, fifth, sixth, seventh chapters of thesis. The research contents include: economy impact, uncertainty, uncertainty impact, concrete behavior that three kinds of uncertainty assault, deterministic profound reason, conduction mechanism that uncertainty assaults, deterministic influence and not deterministic state space are described, enterprise forewarning index system, dynamics analysis, enterprise forewarning precision, forewarning method of enterprise system, the organization framework of enterprise's forewarning, operation procedure, process of implementation, mode of execution, and decision type choose, the cost and income , enterprise forewarning mode and enterprise suitability of forewarning ,etc.The third part focuses on application of enterprises' forewarning system. Originally include the 8th chapter. The content includesBased on the real situation of enterprises,...