Study On The Fluctuation Of Macroeconomic System Based On The Entropy Theory

Macroeconomic system is a huge system including the economic situation in the whole country. Its development is not sustainable and steadily as our expectation, but alternately up and down. The wave of economic system is eternal and external in any kind of economy and political system as well as the form of society. How to model and explain the macroeconomic system and draw the characteristics of its variables are very important to regulate and control the macroeconomic system. Therefore the research of the rule of economic fluctuate is very important for our government to make macroeconomic policies.The economic system consists of many sub-systems, but it is not the key of the complexity of economic system. The key is that economic system has layers. For the complex systems, energy and entropy have given us the new tool to explain them. The main content and innovation of this paper are as follows:1. It retrospects to and comments on the theory and research method of the economic fluctuation. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the macroeconomic system, and draws a conclusion that economic system is a complex, nonlinear system, which should be investigated based on the knowledge of complexity, nonlinear and uncertainty. And then it puts forward the method which combines energy and entropy with the research of macroeconomics.2. It analyzes the theory and characteristics of entropy. Because that entropy is a variable which is used to describe the state of complex system and independent on the microcosmic characteristics of system, it is possible and necessary to combine entropy theory with the macroeconomic fluctuation. It provides the analysis and anticipation of macroeconomic fluctuation with the brand new ideas and ways, and expands the entropy.3. It tests the model to forecast macroeconomic fluctuation based on energyand entropy theory and statistic data. The result of testing shows us that the model is useful and credible. It makes up the two-variable system which can explain the situation and fluctuation of the macroeconomic system precisely and find the changing rules. So we can use it to forecast the trend of the economic fluctuation.