The Research On The Grey Predictive Model For The Economic Development Of The National High And New Tech Zone

With the development of the national high and new technology industrial development zones, experts and scholars from home and abroad have conducted further investigation and research about science and technology zones. However, there are few experts who would, applying new theories, dissect the correlation factors producing the effect on the zones, and give the quantitative analysis and research of the development regulations of the zone, so as to provide the basis for local governments and management. Aiming directly at the economic development and informationiaztion project of manufacturing industry in Daqing national high and new technology industrial development zone, this article establishes a series of grey predictive models and grey assistant decision making models, guided by the theories of grey system and economy regulation, to analyze the key components and the relevant features and anticipated the prospect, which would be a beneficial exploration and essay.The dissertation made grey association analysis to the economic development of Daqing national high and new tech zone. With the application of grey correlation theory and the accordance of resemblance and dissimilarity among the factors, it investigated the degree of significance, influence, development and restriction among the correlation factors of investment in the fixed assets, petrification enterprise assembly, foreign investment, foreign exchange earning, the number of stationed enterprises, etc., which exerted the influence on the economic development in Daqing high and new tech zone, and figured out the interior rules and relations of them. On the ground of it, the relations of competition, raw material, market, and the spur of different industriesof the leading industry-----petrification enterprise assembly, were studied as thefocal point, which provided the basis of structure adjustment in Daqing high and new tech zone.A series of the grey predictive models of the economic development in Daqing high and new tech zone was established in the dissertation. The greypredictive models GM(1, N), based on the main economic targets in Daqing high and new tech zone in the past few years, predicted respectively the main targets of the economic development of Daqing high and new tech zone in the coming few years. Moreover, the analysis was made based on the prediction, so was the demonstration of the feasibility based on the analysis.The grey predictive model of informationization engineering of manufacturing industry in Daqing high and new tech zone was set up in the dissertation. The informationization engineering of manufacturing industry plays a very important role in the manufacture enterprises and the whole development of the high and new tech zone. By the theory of grey system, the article undertook the association analysis about the economic development of Daqing high and new tech zone and informationization of the manufacturing industry, and the assessment and prediction of the effect on the informationization engineering of manufacturing industry, and the grading-up disposition and reasonable adjustment to the three key components of the informationization engineering of manufacturing industry, which offered the scientific basis of decision making for the informationization engineering of manufacturing industry of Daqing high and new tech zone.The grey assistant -decision making models of the informationization engineering of manufacturing industry in Daqing high and new tech zone was constructed in the dissertation. With the help of the model, the informationized research and development, management, and production, and other relevant elements were simulated by the technique of virtual reality, and then evaluated with various kinds of targets. The result of the evaluation was judged by the grey multi-target decision making.