The Applications Of Grey System Theory On Chinese Macro-economy Analysis

Macro-economy system is a complicated huge system. With the establishment of chinese socialistic market economy, it is especially important in academic significance and practical value applying techniques and models of quantitative economics to research of macro-economic estate and forecast of economical development trend.In 1982, Prof. J. L. Deng founded the Grey System Theory, which studies the uncertain system on the "small sample", "poor information", i.e. "part information known, part information unknown" we have. Through creating and excavating the limited information, we could understand the real world, describe its evolvement rule and grasp its running behavior exactly. Grey model has no special request or restrict on the original experimental data and its distribution. Besides, it is easy to compute and learn. After 20 years' development, Grey System has been applied in many scientific fields including industry, agriculture, society, economy, traffic, energy sources, geography, geology, petroleum, earthquake, meteorology, irrigation works, environment, zoology, iatrology, physical culture, education, military affairs, law and finance, etc. It also has solved large mount of practical problems concerned with production, life and scientific research. During the time, Grey System itself has formed as a new subject of a self-contained structure system through incessant development.This paper predicts the future data of macro-economic indexes of our homeland during 2005-2010, divides 31 provinces and economic regions to several clustering analysis, analyses and evaluates the relational factors which influence Jiangsu development of regional industry economy by grey system methods, which is based on the Optimization Model of Grey Increment with New Information (OMGI), Grey Relational Analysis (GRA). On the basis of prediction and evaluated results, it analyses existed problems in economy developing according to correlative references, offers some useful information for constituting economic policy by summarizing related experiences.