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Research On The Causes Of Social Security (criminal) Case Based On Temporal And Spatial Data Mining Method

Posted on:2010-01-01Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:J YanFull Text:PDF
GTID:1116360308457654Subject:Nuclear Science and Technology
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
This paper studied the impacts of determinants on social security (criminal) cases in macrocosm and microcosm, such as the social economy, people's livelihood, etc. The paper was divided into the following several parts: the first part of the paper has analyzed the correlations between the development of society and crime level preliminarily, such as the economy, demographics, social harmony and government investment. In the second part, empirical research methods based on cointegration theory were used to explore the effects of four categories of social development macro indicators on change in property crime rate separately. The paper analyzed long-run equilibrium between macroeconomic factors and the crime rate, and dynamic impacts of short-term fluctuations in macroeconomic factors on crime rates. Finally, paper analyzed the causes of the spatial distribution of crime. Paper used geographical weighted regression (GWR) to analyze the relationships between spatial distribution of theft crime rate and geographical factors. The main conclusions are as follows:There are long-run equilibrium relationships between macroeconomic factors and property crime rate, while the crime rate is affected by former crime level and the income significantly in the short term. According to dynamic analysis results, per capita GDP, household consumption and income levels, education and state financial expenditure for education will play suppression roles on crime.Improved urbanization, population mobility, income gap and the increase in investment in fixed assets do enhance crime level. But the registered urban unemployment rate does not granger causality on property crime rate in both short-run and long-run.There are stable ratio relationships between the government financial expenditures and crime rate, in the area of education, public security and social security, which reflect government's efforts on alleviating social contradictions and fighting against crime.The distribution of criminal cases shows aggregation state, that is crime hot spots. The spatial relationship between crime and geographical factors are spatial nonstationary, there are relevance in various degree between theft crime rate and community's characteristics.
Keywords/Search Tags:social security case, crime, cause, cointegration, clustering
PDF Full Text Request
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