Prediction Of Demand For Social Devotion Into Chinese Higher Education

This topic roots in the research of reforming devotion system of higher education with a new type relationship of government and universities, which is a key task of national education science of the 10th five-year plan. And prediction of need for social investment into higher education is a branch task of the research. Need, development and the lack of outlay are the resources of the research topic. In this research, social investment into higher education indicates all the investment except government investment in the total investment into higher education, including tuition fee and self-financing of universities. And self-finance includes social science and technology devotion, donation and other incomes from social services about higher education. Our country has a large population of over1.3 billion. So there's a large demand for education. In 1999, the government called for the popularization of higher education. Universities and colleges have continuing regularly enlarged recruiting students, and the scale of running a school has been increasingly enlarged. And we reached the edge of popularization of higher education in the year of 2003 , which is the need for realizing the socialist modernization in China. Aggrandizing investment is the base of the rapid development of higher education, while the serious lack of outlay for higher education has become the biggest obstacle for developing higher education. So it's high time reformed the current investing system of higher education, added social investment , scientifically predicted the future and outlay need of higher education and analyzed the feasibility of the need. Thus we can provide theoretical proofs for regulating policies and building new system, which is also the significance of this research. This research follows the clue of analyzing and predicting of social investment into higher education in our country, and is blended with theoretical research, international comparison and demonstrative analysis. We first look back on the historical and current situation of investment into higher education since 1952, then build a frame of reference compared with OECD countries and compare the education investment in our country with the international standard. We discuss the reasons and changing process of the structure of investment into higher education, on the base of which we present a theoretical hypothesis and a predicting frame for social investment of higher education, and make categorized predictions and prediction of the total need according to this hypothesis and frame. In the end, we put forward advice for regulating policies according to the results of the prediction. In the predicting part we make use of the data bank of the fifth National Census in 2000, according to which we reckon the number of people whose ages are suitable for getting higher education, and thus we predict the scale of college students from 2004-2020. In the prediction of average education expending and the ways of increasing to the international standard, we take two ways of calculating, one is saturated state of international standard, the other is non-saturated state of current Chinese developing standard. Then we get the total demand for investment into Chinese higher education from 2004-2020. From analyzing the factors to support the government to add financial investment into higher education, we predict the amount of financial investment into higher education and then get the results of the whole need for social investment from2004-2020. In the categorized predictions of social investment, we have chosen data about 26 universities in Beijing area to discuss the reasons of the change of social investment under relatively similar exterior conditions. Then we chose587 universities from the whole country and analyzed about more than 13,000 items from these universities, the number of the items of each university is 22. And we further discuss the impetus of universities toward social investment, and on the base of which we predict the tuition fee and self-financing of universities. In the prediction of tuition fee, we use the following ways. Respectively according to relevant government regulations; the rate of people's controllable income and the tuition standards of universities of international run by government and non-official forces and according to the need for tuition investment caused by the development of higher education, we predict the whole tuition fee of higher education and the tuition fee of common higher education and give advice about charging the whole tuition fee of higher education and the tuition fee of common higher education from 2004-2020. Science and technology devotion is emphatically predicted in the self-financing of universities. Based on the demonstrative analysis and predicting results, we put forward a three-three structure in this research, which is a structure of equal devotion of government, families and society. And we also give a series of advice for regulating investment. The innovation of this research can be seen in the following points: (1) We put forward a theory of dividing the development of investment into higher education from 2004-2020 into3 seedtimes (2)We identify the concept of social investment into higher education in china and take measuring economics as the quantitative analysis method to build a relevant mathematic module. (3)We make predictions for the total need and categorized needs of investment intoChinese higher education and analyze the feasibility of the predicting results. (4) We design a frame of structure of equal devotion into higher education of government, families and society, and accordingly we give a series of advice for regulating relevant policies.