The Statistic Research On Aging And Adjustment Of Industry Structure In China

This paper according to the relevant theories of demology, application statistics method with substantial evidence data, proceeded relatively all-around research and the analysis of the system on population ageing's progress and the influence of the industrial structure in China , and put forward the correlative policy suggestion on the foundation .This paper research emphases on the follow points of view:The first, this paper expatiated systematically the standpoint that the population structure make the profound influence to the industrial structure. Human is a consumer, as well as is producer, therefore, from two way of supply and demand, this paper point out that population structure condition and its fluctuation will influence the industrial structure.The second, this paper establish the population forecast model, with the latest data, ascertain the model parameters, analysis and predict the population scale and structure of future 65 years' in China, then analyzing the variety trend of ageing population in Chinese, and revelation the stage characteristics of population ageing in China. The results show that Chinese population scale will reach to near 1.4 billion of most high peak in 2020. The phenomenon of proportion of infant of China will become serious gradually, if without and potent measure, the sex ratio will cause social problem seriously after more than 10 years. Currently, the population age structure is still on good placed in the lower society dependency ratio ,and in abundant labor force or "population bonus" ,but turns to 2020 ,the ageing in population problem will highlight gradually, and ageing turn will go to the fast development stages in 2020-2034,the proportion of old population will reach to the peak in 2059.The third, on point of demand view, this paper analyze the ageing in population influence to change of industrial structure. Structural fluctuation in age in population, will bring consumption need and its structural fluctuations by all means, then directly, to affect the industrial structure that producing consumer goods, and indirectly, to affect the industrial structure that provide the middle product for the consumer goods. In addition, because the ageing in population turn the expenditure of social security fast inflation. Any policies to keeping with human's environment life and live in for old population, and keeping with the good mind and body healthy for old population, will influence the industrial structure and it's adjustments. The consume market of old population will become immensity in future, the proportion of old population demand will account for 17.2% of total demand in 2020 in China.The fourth, on point of supply view, this paper analyze the ageing of population influence to change of industrial structure. The structural fluctuation of age in population, by all means, make varieties on quantity and quantity of labor force. Several year later, the labor force resources, lasting out to increase in China, will attain 940 million in 2010.Start dropping henceforth, return to the current scale level about 2035.Labor force median age then will from 33.6 years old of the 2000, quickly increasing to 40.5 years old of the 2020 and 43.8 years old of the 2040, the labor force resources will face the trend of missing and ageing. This paper compare the relation of population and industrial structure, point out the Chenery's model parameters aren't fit for the pattern of China industrial structure. With the data of China, this paper estimated the fluctuation trend of the "standard" industrial structure of China. The result expresses that, along with the gross population increment and GDP exaltation, in China, the proportion of primary industry output value will descent, the proportion of secondary industry output value will rises to 50.83% till 2016, then beginning descends, the proportion of tertiary industry output value will rises gradually from 33.88% in 2000, becoming behind three times in 2039 the biggest industry of industry inside, amounting to 59.82% in 2060.The fifth, on point of district economy view, this paper analyze the influence of ageing in population .In China, an economic industrial structure , resulted from the variety of the population ageing pressure, generally, performance out on the economic unbalance in district, further, performance out on the population transplant and district city's development, then influence the development progress of district's ageing in population. Turn over, every district, according to its population situation, adjust the economic industrial structure. There is only district industrial structure with reasonable adjustment and convert, the every kind of the population aging problem can be resolved. The adjustment of the economic industrial structure are affects and restrict mutually with populating aging development ,this is two important factors of economic development in district.The sixth, on point of urbanization view, this paper analyze the relationship between ageing in population with the adjustment of district industrial structure. Compared future progress of urbanization to the population construction characteristics with the development trend of the industrial structure in China, probe into the difference that ageing progress in China's population inside city country, and into the relationship that urbanization with industrial structure, this paper reveal the regulation of the development of the industrial structure, and bring into the difference of district industrial structure develop inside, then indicate the direction of adjusting the industrial structure. In consideration of China's population space distribution unbalance characteristics, From the view of ageing in district population ,this paper inquiry into relationship of the population age construction with industrial structure in various area in China, partition districts on economic characteristics in population, compare the industrial structure with the industry employment construction in various areas, analyze the direction of population migration and direction of industrial structure excellent in various areas in future.The seventh, for further approach the development situation of the industrial structure after the population aged in China, this paper aims at the medical treatment and life service profession, food and home articles profession, real estate profession, travel profession and education profession , that is turned direct influenced by population ageing, did the thorough discuss.The eighth, To reply appropriately the population ageing problem, needing the population policy, industry policy with the coordination of the district policy, this paper put forward own suggestion and viewpoint on policy establishment and put into practice relevant of population and industry policyThis paper , the contents for studying belongs to new realm inside in economics in population , namely ageing population economics. The passed exertion of the statistics method and the exploitation of the statistic data, not only make this course ascended a step on theory study with wide and depth degree, but also learns to develop a new applied realm for statistics.