Research On The Nonlinear Effect Of Population Aging To The Change Of Industrial Structure In China

After the reform and opening up,China has made great efforts to develop labor-intensive industries by relying on the advantages of labor force and has made remarkable achievements in economic growth.The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2017 pointed out that China's economic development has turned to the stage of pursuing high quality and the transformation of industrial structure is imminent.At the same time,China's population aging is accelerating.By the end of 2018,the population aged 65 and above has reached 167 million,accounting for 11.94% of the total population.The impact of population aging and industrial structure on economic development is increasingly prominent.Therefore,the high-quality development of economy should pay attention to the relationship between population aging and the change of industrial structure.By studying the impact of population aging on the change of industrial structure,we can provide important theoretical and practical significance for the better and faster development of China's economy.This is a study on the impact of population aging on the change of industrial structure.After explaining the background and significance of the research,this paper summarizes the relevant literature of population aging and industrial structure change and analyzes the research theories and research viewpoints of the existing literature.It is found that there are two ways to influence the change of industrial structure: one is to change the supply of labor,technology research and development,capital investment,and the other is to change the demand of consumption,investment and pension burden.On this basis,this paper measures the current level of China's aging population and industrial structure.It describes the current situation of China's aging population and industrial structure according to the results.This paper analyzes the possible future development trend and the effect of aging on the changes of industrial structure.Then,by using the 2010-2018 inter provincial panel data of China,takingthe degree of population aging as the threshold variable and the change of industrial structure as the explained variable,this paper establishes a panel smooth threshold regression(PSTR)model to study the impact of population aging on the change of industrial structure.At the same time,due to the obvious regional differences in China's population and economy,this paper also measures the impact of population aging on the changes of industrial structure in the three regions of East,Middle and West China,and makes a comparative analysis of the empirical results.The results show that the effect of population aging on the change of industrial structure is nonlinear,and the threshold characteristics are significant.Generally speaking,the effect of population aging on the change of industrial structure has a positive promoting effect,which is shown as follows: before the threshold,when the degree of population aging is low,it has a strong promoting effect on the change of industrial structure.After the population aging exceeds the threshold,the promoting effect on the change of industrial structure weakens,but it still shows a promoting effect.In addition,this paper also found that there are regional differences in the impact of population aging on the changes of industrial structure.In the same development stage of different regions in the East,the Middle and the West,the influence direction and degree of aging on the change of industrial structure are different.In different stages of population aging,the impact on the changes of industrial structure in the East,the Middle and the West is not the same.The effect of the eastern region is most similar to that of the whole country,which may be related to the rapid economic development level in the eastern region.To sum up,this paper believes that while complying with the development trend of population aging,China must make full use of the role of aging in promoting the change of industrial structure.We should actively promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure,and promote the high-speed and high-quality development of China's economy.At the same time,we should pay attention to regional differences,and introduce development policies in line with the current situation of the local population structure and industrial structure to ensure the healthy and stable operation of the economy.