Carrying Capacity Of Marine Resources, Ecology And Environment, And Its Application In Bohai Bay Rim

Based on the review and summary of the existing research in the field of carrying capacity, this dissertation discusses in detail the concept of the Carrying Capacity of Marine Resources, Ecology and Environment (CMREE), its connotation and features. It establishes a method of assessing Carrying Capacity of Marine Resources, Ecology and Environment (CMREE), by combining system dynamic model and state-space model. The assessment of regional CMREE is analyzed, simulated, predicted, and compared. The purpose of decision supporting is achieved. The positive research is conducted in the Bohai Bay Rim. This study provides for marine development and management, and regional coordination of the development with a set of evaluation and decision-supporting methods. Specific research results are as follows:●In terms of the basic concepts and basic theory, this dissertation discusses the concept, connotation and relevant theory of Carrying Capacity of Marine Resources, Ecology and Environment (CMREE) based on the study of marine carrying capacity. And marine ecosystem services are considered as an element of the carrying capacity. From the perspective of sustainable development, hierarchical principle and constraint mechanism of carrying capacity, and the assessment theory of carrying capacity, marine resources, marine ecology, marine environment and a certain region of human economic activity are studied in order to establish the interaction systems among different systems and to lay the theoretical foundation for CMREE evaluation.●The System Dynamics Model and state-space model of Bohai Bay CMREE are established, combined with element research methods such as value evaluation of ecosystem-services. This creates a system approach for assessing CMREE.●The socioeconomic development of Bohai Bay rim including Tianjin, Tangshan, Cangzhou, Binzhou and Dongying, marine resources supply, and the state and quality of marine environment in Bohai Bay are analyzed. The results show that the Bohai Bay region is an important economic area, rich in marine resources, but marine pollution is getting worse.●Three categories of criteria and ten elements are created as indices to assess the CMREE in Bohai Bay. For the Bohai Bay area, using state-space evaluation model, three different weighting methods are determined to assess the CMREE of Bohai Bay region from 2003 to 2007. The results showed that, from 2003 to 2007, the Bohai Bay region's marine resources, ecology and environment can continue carrying the loads; and the capacity value is between 1 and 2; this value in 2005 is slightly lower than 1, although the overall load in the available state but it is very close to the threshold.●The system dynamics model is used to simulate the trend of socio-economy, environmental pollution, marine resources production in the Bohai Bay region from 2008 to 2020. The results indicate that the urban population of the region will increase year by year while the rural population will decrease annually, the urbanization rate thus will increase gradually; regional economic output and gross output value of marine industries will increase exponentially; industrial restructure will be upgraded, close to the middle level of developed countries; wastewater and the fluxes of the main pollutants into the ocean such as COD and ammonia nitrogen will decrease year by year, marine water quality will be gradually improved; marine crude oil production will increase at first and then decrease, meanwhile the highest annual output will be expected to be in 2014; marine natural gas production will increase year by year at first and gradually become stable in the overall trend.●Based on some related plans in the Bohai Bay area, two scenarios are designed to predict CMREE in this region, namely, business as usual v.s. optimized development. The results imply that the marine resources and ecological environment of the Bohai Bay will be overloaded in the scenario of business as usual whereas they will be sustainable in the scenario of optimized development, which will control the population growth, reduce pollutant fluxes, increase investment in marine environmental protection, and recover and improve the marine ecosystem services.●Marine ecosystem service values in Bohai Bay are calculated. From 2003 to 2007, the value of marine ecosystem services accounted for the proportion of GDP in the Bohai Bay region showed a declining trend, the proportion was 6.58%,5.56%, 4.49%,3.94%,3.52%, respectively.