The Variations Of China Industry Energy Intensity And Path Finding Of Energy Conservation

If we recognize the fact of China's relatively high energy consumption, it is attributed to the interim characteristics of the development of industrialization, extensive mode of economic growth, the low-end globalized industrial division chain and the dynamic growth mechanism driven by the core of investments and exports; nevertheless under present conditions of immature energy pricing and management system, there is an internal conflict between energy saving and growth. However, the confirmation of the target amount of the planned energy-saving and emission reduction of 'the 11th 5-year planning', energy-saving constraints and regulation enhancement, all of which did not have large impact on the economic growth. China economy has still managed a relatively high growth rate while accomplish the interim target of energy-saving.But, some scattered fragments reflected by China economy somehow have deflected the problems towards pessimism. In the process of economic development, the opposing relationship and contradictions between energy-saving and growth still exist; the adjustments of industrial structure do not show obvious changes either. So, what is the origin of the decreased energy consumption of China GDP? How the path of energy-saving is verified and formed after the formation of hard energy-saving constraints? Why energy-saving regulations have obvious effect for most of the time but oppose to the growth in later phase? Does the path of energy-saving match the characteristics of China economic development? Should some deep structural contradiction be mitigated or accumulated? We are trying to seek evidence and answers to these questions through empirical analysis.This essay first starts with the historical pattern of energy consumption intensity of industrial segment and fluctuation characteristics, then evaluates the scientific nature of the quantified target of energy-saving and practical foundation. The improvement of energy efficiency certainly always accompanies the industrial and economic development. But meanwhile, the trend of micro improvement of energy efficiency still cannot change the fact that our industrial energy efficiency is low; market segmentation and market protection caused by the regional excessive competition limit the increase of industrial centralization, as a result, industrial enterprises are short of practical environment for achieving high energy efficiency while already possessing the high energy efficiency technologies. The existence of multiple factors and deep contradictions poses difficulty for achieving energy-saving target.The specific decomposition and analysis of industrial energy consumption intensity indicate that the source of decreased industrial energy consumption comes from the energy efficiency improvement of the segment; the function of industrial structure is not clear. If, in near future, the accelerated urbanization and the position of the pillar industries of real estate industry are consolidated, the industrial structure may have adverse effect on the energy consumption intensity. How the adjustment of industrial structure is incorporated into the energy-saving policies will determine the final energy-saving target achievement.Next, for the construction of the determination model of industrial energy consumption level, we have processed the measurements of the energy consumption. Due to the difficulty of measuring energy efficiency and the drawbacks of the measuring method of total factor energy efficiency, practical ideas of energy efficiency measurement are gradually formed; the endogenous issues caused by structural change are avoided through panel models, meanwhile through effective technologically improved measurements which symbolize the technological change of the industry and efficiency improvement, the influence of technological advancement is then incorporated into the rationale analysis of the fluctuations of energy consumption intensity.To be specific, on the basis of comparing the technologically advanced measuring methods, DEA-Malmquist indexing method is applied to the estimation of industrial total factor productivity and then decomposed into technological advancement, technical efficiency and scale efficiency change. The conclusion confirms that, during sampling period, the industrial growth drive does not spring from the improvement of total factor productivity; extensive growth is still the typical feature of our national industrial manufacture characterized by high investment and, high consumption. TFP's negative growth is primarily caused by the deterioration of scale efficiency. This in fact provides empirical evidence for the determination of the path of energy-saving, forceful scale integration can indeed improve the productivity rapidly and significantly.On the basis of what was aforementioned, the variable's fragmentation, volatility and lack of unity are explained in the research for the influencing factors of energy consumption intensity. It is sorted and merged according to the three aspects of achieving productive capacity, factor allocation change plus regulations and endowments. Specifically, we notice the subtle feature of industrial scale change. Two indicators are used to gauge the level of average industrial scale change and discrete scale in order to achieve the integration of industrial dimension and regional dimension and further investigate the different impacts it has on the energy consumption intensity. The Results derived from the determination model of industrial energy consumption intensity show that scale integration has obvious and positive impact on capital-intensive industries in energy consumption intensity reduction. Though there are noticeable differences between capital-intensive and labor-intensive industries; technology, price and influence of energy structure also reflect the industrial heterogeneity, which decides that the choice of the path of energy-saving must reflect those characteristics. The application of single and average energy-saving measures and policies will have heterogeneous effects in different industries.Afterwards, we switch our attention from the level of energy consumption to factor allocation. Based on the analysis of recognizing the difference between industrial technology and allocation efficiency, it has further proved the government appeal caused by delayed energy pricing revolution and the existence of the contradiction of micro demand, especially in capital-intensive industry whose optimization of allocation efficiency will generate more energy demand. This also partially explains why the present choice of the path of energy-saving merely focuses on the improvement of technical efficiency as the interests of the manufacturers and the government will only align in this way. But, the fact of differences existing in the industry of scale reward effect shows that the energy-saving path utilizing scale increase is not suitable for all industries. Nevertheless, the accomplishment of the energy-saving target involving factor substitution is only suitable for labor-intensive industry. The completeness of capital market, the unimpeded financing channels and labor quality improvement are indeed able to promote the reduction of energy consumption level of the industry. In contrast, the accelerated capital formation of the capital-intensive industry and cheap capital resulting from systematic advantage will have an adverse impact on the national industrial energy consumption reduction and employment.Finally, based on the results of the empirical analysis, this essay has given thorough thoughts about the formation and establishment of industrial energy-saving path. Firstly, the uniqueness of the average decomposition of energy-saving target has been proved from the view points of cross-sectional administrative restraints and vertical industrial management. Just because of this, by taking target integration into account, the formation of present energy-saving path indeed meets the demand of multiple entities of interest in the short run, showing its consumption reducing effect in the multi-target appeal system. This in fact proves the inevitability and the uniqueness of formation of industrial energy-saving path which mainly employs upgrading scale and elimination of outdated capacity.The persistence and sustainability of the current energy-saving path are doubted because of its uniqueness and the neglect of market regulation and factor allocation change. By taking this path, the formation of energy-saving restraints cannot really limit the high energy-consuming industries and guides the optimization of industrial structure and development of light weight. Instead, under the conditions of the existence of government favourism, the conflicts between light and heavy industries, state-owned economy and privately-owned economy will be further worsened; in this case, the transition of economic growth pattern is not being promoted and helped. The establishment of sustainable and persistent energy-saving system acquires the intervention of government and the guidance of administrative restraints. However, the main role must be transferred from the government to the manufacturer who can only lead the China economy into the path of sustainable development while encompassing its own introspection and the internal incentive system of micro entity.