Design Of Marine Disaster Compensation Fund

China's disaster risk management system, with the features of fiscal capital allocation and planning management style, constrains the efficiency of resource allocation and compensating ability of frequent marine disasters. Moreover, this problem will become more serious with the economy development.This paper aimed to improve the compensating ability of marine disasters and applied the appropriate theories and methods to construct the framework of marine accident compensation fund with the "dumb-bell" type, and systematically investigate how to design the marine disasters Compensation Fund program which main constituents are residents, businesses, and individual insurance market.Beginning from the disaster risk properties and public risk attributes the paper analyzed China's bearing capacity of marine disasters and stated the objective economy basis of the construction of marine disaster compensation fund. Based on the analysis of the current condition of marine disaster losses, the article built a cycle extension gray model, recognized the historical data's goodness of fit and predicted the direct economic losses of marine disasters. All of these provided a foundation for determining the size of the fund. Furthermore, it proposed a way of aggregate compensation for the loss of marine disasters, building a framework of the Marine Accident Compensation Fund with "dumb-bell" type.Then, the paper systematically proposed the design of compensation fund for marine disasters and conducted empirical analysis of the whole process. First, it studied the details of building the fund, proposed diversified financing methods and applied the CAPM model to study the insurance pricing means, with factor analysis measuring the various financing strategies. Secondly, the paper researched the operation of the fund, in a view of transferring the disasters'risks. It emphasized the feasibility of marine disaster fund, by an empirical analysis of the fund portfolio, using Markowitz mean-variance model. Finally, it researched the post-disaster compensation mechanism of marine disasters and presented the post-disaster compensation arrangements. By fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, it determined the disaster damage degree, which was set as the compensation criterion.The main results and innovations of this paper lie in the following three:Firstly, the paper analyzes the assumptions of the marine disaster compensation fund designing. It used individual disaster bearing model, multi-dimensional gray model and VAR models to make empirical analysis of bearing capacity of individual, authority and market and found out the underlying problems. Then, according to the characteristic of the time series of marine disasters'economic losses, the paper built the cycle extension gray model by testing the historical data, it predicted the future developing trend of marine disaster losses.Secondly, the paper builds a framework for marine disaster compensation fund. According to the forecast of marine disaster's economic losses, combined with the situation of insufficient bearing capacity of each subject in the marine disaster, it builds up the framework of marine accident compensation fund of" dumb-bell" type, with the government, residents and businesses, and individual insurance market as the main constituents. Moreover, the paper point out that the framework is the substance and content of the Marine Accident Compensation Fund running. Marine Accident Compensation Fund reflects the overall compensation for the loss of marine disasters ideas through three aspects:risk prevention mechanism in the former, investment and operation in running, compensation after the disaster. While, overall compensation idea's realization needs the "dumb-bell" type of compensation fund.Thirdly, the paper designed an implementation program of the marine disasters compensation fund. Analyzing the current insurance of marine disasters and the diversified financing methods of the compensation fund, the paper presented the framework of re-engineering financing process. Researching the pricing mechanism of the marine disaster insurances and recognizing the distribution of the economic losses of marine disasters, it presented the CAPM-based pricing method and designed the financing methods of the compensation fund, using factor analyzing method.The paper interoperated the transferring channels and operation model of compensation fund, presented the framework of marine disaster bond and designed the portfolio, with an empirical analysis by Markowitz mean-variance model. The paper determines the critical point of the compensation with the application the fuzzy evaluation method. And empirical analysis was carried out to design the fund's compensation program with the fuzzy membership function.