Research On The Impact Of Economic Development Level On The Loss Of Agrometeorological Disasters

In the context of global warming,meteorological disasters have had a negative impact on agricultural production worldwide.The climate types in our country are complex and diverse,and the losses suffered by agrometeorological disasters have always been at the forefront of the world.Natural disasters have the dual attributes of nature and society.The loss of agrometeorological disasters is also the result of the combined effect of natural forces and economic institutional forces.The influence of economic institutional factors has been increasingly concerned by researchers.The existing research on the loss of agrometeorological disasters is mainly done by natural scientists,and the discussion of economic system factors is currently limited to selecting relevant indicators to characterize it,and it is difficult to explore its internal mechanism.Therefore,economic research needs to play its due role.Accordingly,on the basis of combing the relevant researches on disaster economics in detail,this paper empirically estimates the impact of economic development level on the loss of agrometeorological disasters and analyzes its mechanism of action.The research conclusions have important policy implications for improving the ability of agrometeorological disaster prevention and mitigation to reduce the loss of agrometeorological disasters,thereby ensuring food security.In view of this,based on the national time series data and provincial panel data from 1978 to 2019,this paper analyzes the four types of meteorological disasters that have a greater impact on agricultural production: drought,flood,hail disasters,and low-temperature freezing damage.Firstly,using descriptive statistical analysis to summarize and extract the changing trend and geographical distribution characteristics of China’s agricultural meteorological disaster losses since the reform and opening up,and construct the correlation between per capita income level and agrometeorological disaster losses.Secondly,using the fixed effect model,the impact of economic development characterized by per capita GDP on the loss of agricultural meteorological disasters was estimated,and the role of agricultural insurance market development in mitigating the impact of agrometeorological disasters is further analyzed by using the regulative effect model.Finally,based on the perspectives of the three different actors of the government,the market,and farmers,the paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions for the improvement of the comprehensive ability of disaster prevention and mitigation in our country.The study found that:(1)Agrometeorological disasters are the main source of disasters in our country’s agricultural sector.Since the reform and opening up,the losses of agricultural meteorological disasters have tended to decline.The production layout of planting industry is a key factor affecting the regional distribution of agrometeorological disaster losses,but the regional concentration of the latter is much higher than that of the former,and the per capita GDP negatively affects the losses of agrometeorological disasters,indicating that there are significant differences in the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation among provinces.(2)Increasing the per capita income level can significantly reduce the total loss of agrometeorological disasters and the loss of drought and low temperature freezing damage.In addition,the industrial structure,labor force,disaster prevention investment and education level will also have a significant impact on the loss of different types of agrometeorological disasters.(3)From the perspective of different regions,the inhibitory effect of the level of economic development on agrometeorological disaster loss is different,especially in the western region.Higher degree of development of the agricultural insurance market can effectively strengthen the hidden insurance effect of the level of economic development in reducing losses from agrometeorological disasters,and the above adjustment effect is particularly significant in the central region.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: first,increase financial funds and policy support,increase investment in agricultural infrastructure,improve disaster early warning and monitoring mechanisms,and effectively strengthen disaster prevention and mitigation;second,promote the effective participation of the market in agricultural disaster risk management and reasonably share the pressure of the government;third,do a good job in agricultural disaster publicity and technical support,and improve farmers’ awareness of disaster risk prevention.