Analysis Of China's CBM Industry Development Approach And Prospect

Development and utilization of coalbed methane(CBM) can be effective in reducing coal mine accidents, improving the atmospheric environment and increasing energy supply. China has abundant CBM resources, and its development and utilization has achieved significant results. But it's still in the early stages of industrial development. We should learn from foreign experience of major countries in CBM development to accelerate the development pace of China's CBM industry.The main factors of China's CBM industry development can be divided into a total of 16 factors in four categories refering to core elements, pillar elements, input factors and environmental factors. A complete spider web formed with all of the 16 factors, reflecting the impact of China's CBM industry development factors and the relationships among these factors. In the spider web, market demand is the core; five pillar factors and market demand formed into the web's framework, which is a radial figure, and other factors will be connected on it at two levels; Five input elements encircled the core closely through the frame, and became the web's core circle; Five environmental factors encircled the core circle through the frame, and became the web's outer circle, as the ecological environment of China's CBM industry. This is the spider web analysis model of the development way and prospects for China's CBM industry.Based on spider web model, combined with China's actual situation, we analysed and educed the main constraints of China's CBM industry development, in which include: Exploration and development faces many difficulties because of complex geological conditions; The key and sets of appropriate technology can not meet the needs, and technological innovation capability is weak; Investment is inadequate in exploration and development, and the investment environment needs to be improved; The industry body is weak, and the industrial structure is irrational, and human resource procession construction lags behind; The market system lagged behind, and its basic role in resource allocation have not been played sufficiently; The infrastructure is weak and its operational mechanism is unreasonable; The regulations and policies are inadequate, and the government management and service level needs to be improved; The cost of CBM development and utilization is high, and the subsidies were not fully implemented; The development of CBM and coal should be further coordinated. To solve the above constraints, we proposed the following ways for the development of China's CBM industry: Aiming at the geological features of China's CBM, to make the technology and innovation as the guide, and to strengthen RD and application of advanced and applicable technologies; Being drived by diversified investment, to expand the industrial scale; Based on nurturing the quality of enterprises, to develop and expand the market players; Focusing on specialization and cluster, to upgrade the industrial structure; Improve the market system construction, and strengthen the basic role of market mechanisms in allocating resources; Improve the pricing mechanism for CBM, and strengthen the function of interest-driven mechanism; Relying on infrastructure construction, and improve the operating mechanism of long-distance pipeline; Establish and improve regulations and standards, improve government management, strengthen industrial policy support; Make safety and environmental management as a promoter, and establish China's CSRDM compensation mechanism to promote the internalization of externalities; Strengthen the management and communication, establish the development coordination mechanisms between CBM and coal.The development prospects of China's CBM industry mainly including two aspects: Firstly, market supply and demand forecasts of CBM. Using experts predict method, Hubbert model, the gray prediction model, BP neural network model , elastic coefficient method and other methods to predict and comprehensively analyse, the results indicates that using experts predict method and BP neural network prediction model to predict market supply and demand trends is more in line with the actual situation of China's CBM's industry. Model predicts that China CBM production will achieve 100×10~8m~3 in 2015, and 500×10~8m~3 in 2030. Secondly, development stage forecast of CBM industry. The research result indicates that: China's CBM industrial development stage is currently in its early growth stage; It will step into a stable growth period in 2015 and continue until 2030; Its maturity period will come in 2030 and continue until the end of the dominant position of conventional fossil fuels.