An Analysis On Restricted Factors And Growth Efficiency Of Residents Consumption In China

The issues of consumption and economic growth are important parts of macroeconomics. From 1978 to now, average annual economic growth rate in China is up to about 9.5%, China has achieved sustained high growth, residents'living standard have greatly improved constantlly. From the perspective of demand this thesis surveys the structural features of economic growth in China based on international comparison study in the process of reform and opening up. The results show that in China the consumption rate is low, which primarily reflect the low rate of residents consumption. China faces the problem of insufficient consumer demand, the weak residents consumption demand is a challenge to the futural sustained and healthy development of economy. In recent years, particularly after the international financial crisis of 2008, foreign environmental has degradated, the problem of inadequate consumption has been greatly attentioned. Therefore, the researh on restricted factors and growth efficiency of resident consumption in China has a strong practical significance.In accordance with the logic of status quo-theory-evidence-strategy, this thesis has build the research framework of restricted factors and growth efficiency of resident consumption in China. The research is carried out from residents consumption, and the contents to study include:(1) The growth of residents consumption is relatively slow, based on view of uncertainty, can the mainstream consumption thoery explain effectively the phenomenon of weak residents consumption? (2) Under transitional economy the rsearch of residents consumption in China cannot avoid to income distribution, how to expand residents consumption to achieve healthy and rapid development from income distribution? (3) Public expenditure is an important means of redistribution, what is the relationship between public expenditure and residents consumption? How to display the consumption effects of public expenditure? (4) As an demand factor, what is the influence mechanism of residents consumption on economic growth? what is the economic growth effects of residents consumption in China?Based on these issues this thesis uses statistical analysis, mathematical modeling, as well as econometric methods to conduct a theoretical and empirical analysis on restricted factors and growth efficiency of resident consumption in China, the major research results and innovations are as follows:First of all, from the perspective of the total amount and the structure this thesis analyzes the features of residents consumption. From the total amount the growth of residents consumption is relatively slow, it is more slow than the growth of GDP, government consumption and income. From the structure the growth of rural residents consumption is more slow than the growth of urban residents consumption, and the consumption structure of rural residents is lower. It is a more important aspect to expand rural consumption for enhancing the driving forces of consumption to economic growth.Secondly, under the background of transitional economy residents consumption behavior in China is very cautious, based on the precautionary saving theory such as Dynan model this thesis analyze the strength of precautionary saving motive by the state space model (SSM). The results show that there is strong precautionary saving motive in China, and more for the urban; furthermore, the trend is rising stably. And then, the influencing factors of precautionary saving motive under the background of transitional economy are empirically analyzed. The results show that as one of systematic risks under the background of transitional economy, institutional uncertainty is an important factor influencing the precautionary saving motive in China.The precautionary saving motive theory can explain the consumer behavior in China in the certain extent, correction of consumer behavior is an effective measure to expand the consumption, but to analyze the phenomenon of weak residents consumption cannot avoid to income distribution.According to the reality of the continually declined wage share and the continually increased income gap during the process of rapid economic growth, in this thesis, from the primary assignment and redistribution we build models to test the relationships between income distribution and residents consumption. The results show that, the continually declined wage share in the past has greatly limited the expansion of residents consumption demand, though since 1978 the demand regime in China from wage-led clearly has turned into profit-led, its positive effects on investment is stronger than the negative effects on consumption. In addition, the continually expanded income gap has significantly restricted the growth of consumer demand in China, from the internal structure, the income gap in urban have a significantly negative impact on its consumption, income gap between urban and rural also have a negative impact on its consumption, but the income gap in rural has the insignificantly impact on consumption. Therefore, increasing the wage share is an effective measure to expand the consumption, at the same time to achieve healthy and rapid development should adjust the redistribution and optimize the structure to increase the positive impact of the increasing wage share on residents consumption and reduce its negative impact on investment. To Improve the redistribution system should focus on narrowing the income gap in urban residents and reducing the urban-rural income gap, so as to maximize the consumption effect of the redistribution.As an important means of redistribution, public expenditure is an important effect factor on residents consumption, from the scale and the structure we build models to test the relationship between public expenditure(public expenditure for agriculture) and consumption since the reform and opening up in China. The results show that, public expenditure has crowded in rural residents consumption, urban residents consumption. However, public expenditure for agriculture has not significant effects on rural household consumption. In the structure of public expenditure only expenditure about social business, culture and education has significant crowding-in effects on residents consumption, crowding-in effects of this expenditure on urban residents significantly stronger than that on rural residents. In the structure of public expenditure for agriculture, only expenditure of agricultural technology has crowded-in rural residents consumption significantly. In provincial characteristics of crowding-in effects, in east areas and in west areas public expenditure for agriculture has crowded-in rural residents consumption significantly, but in central areas public expenditure for agriculture has not effect on rural residents consumption. the lag restructuring of public expenditure has greatly restricted its consumption effect, to promote restructuring of public expenditure is an important measure to expand consumption.After the mechanism analysis on residents consumption to the economic growth in theory, based on the VAR model this thesis makes an empirical analysis on the economic growth efficiency of residents consumption, the results show that: economic growth is relatively sensitive to residents consumption, its growth effects are significant. However, the growth effects of consumption has not been displayed fully, according to traditional economic theory, the economy with long-term imbalance of investment and consumption can not maintain long-term rapid growth in the closed condition, after the reform and opening up, particularly after the entering into the WTO, the rapid expansion of foreign demand has played a important role, so that China's high economic growth in the past is of continuity. In the new era expanding residents consumption is appropriate to promote sustained and healthy development.Residents consumption has significant economic growth effects, expanding residents consumption is not only an action to alleviate demand restraints, is also an objective request to promote sustained and healthy development during the "twelve-five". At last this thesis analyzes the reasons of weak residents consumption in the process of rapid economic growth, the weak residents consumption is mainly due to strong precautionary saving motive, disparities in income distribution, irrational public expenditure structure and so on. Expanding residents consumption to promote economic sustained and healthy development require a series of relative institutional arrangements.