The Forecast And Analysis Of Agro-Forestry Operations' Integrated Income

All countries should improve the environment of living for the entire human being, protect the ecological environment, and uphold the important idea of sustainable development while developing state strategies. China is of the largest population size in the world. In addition, China's has leapt to become the world's second largest economy in 2010 and is playing a more and more powerful role internationally. Therefore, in developing low carbon economy and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, China should also shoulder the obligations accordingly. To seek an efficient and ecological production and management mode is very crucial to China. Agro-forestry operation is among the options.Based on the Sustainable Development Theory and Utilitarianism Theory, this study established a Forecast Model of Agro-forestry Operations'Integrated Income by using and developing Hartman Models of Timber and Amenity Production, so as to provide the forecast of integrated income of agro-forestry operations and auxiliary business decision-making support. By applying the established model in Ren County Hebei and Mentougou Beijing, the results of forecast of integrated income showed that agro-forestry operations could produce higher yield than pure forestry or pure agriculture practice.The Forecast Model was established based on the Hartman Models which are forestry resource evaluation models. By involving the agricultural income, the Hartman Model was extended and used in the agro-forestry income forecast and analysis.Based on the previous work, the model was integrated in the information system to make an integrated income forecast and business decision support system which supports farmers in project selection, determination of business cycle, etc, which adds the practicality to the forecast model established.