| Returning farmland to forest project is the largest ecological project, facing increasing ecological pressure and variety of economic and social factors. Returning farmland to forest project is the vastest ecological construction project of area,scope,investment,policy.Meantime it involves the personal interests of farmers and is the most possibility of rebound.The paper studied on 100 sample counties in returning farmland to forest area,using questionnaire survey,filling data form, tracking monitor with typical survey and special field survey to survey. The paper surveyed socioeconomic status in100 sample counties from 1998 to 2009.The paper analyzed domestic industrial structure, the land use and value structure, farmers employment, income and consumption structure and food security. And it forested the future development. Main results are as follows.(1) Project area of industrial structure. Primary industry output value in GDP proportion decreases by 13.69%, Secondary industry and Tertiary industry increases by 12.49% and 0.03% from 1998 to 2007. The paper used grey system prediction model to forecasting the three major industry.The results show that Primary industry in GDP proportion gradually reduced 27.05%, Secondary industry increases by 32.1% and Tertiary industry decreases by 2.59%.(2) The land use and value structure. Land use structure is mainly analyzed from farmland, forest land and pasture land. Farmland utilization area showed a downward trend, decreasing by 4.57%; forest land and pasture land area showed an upward trend, increasing by21.51% and 179.79% respectively. The paper used gray system model and a simple linear model to predict.Farmland utilization will show a decrease to increase trend, forest land and pasture land will show a trend of increasing to 2017.Output value structure is analyzed mainly from GDP, LFR, agriculture, forestry, livestock, fishery and gross output. With the increasing of GDP and LFR, agriculture, forestry, livestock, fishery and gross output was increasing from 1998 to 2009. GDP and LFR will increase rapidly, agriculture, forestry, livestock, fishery and gross output will increase to 2017. (3)Farmers employment structure.It is analyzed mainly from total rural population, year end of rural engaged workers and migrant workers. The total rural population decreased by0.44%,;the year end of rural engaged workers showed an increase to decrease trend, totally increasing by3.69%; migrant workers growed 157.35% from 1998 to 2007. Predicting shows the total rural population will show an increased to decreased trend,totally decreasing by 26.17 million population;the year end of engaged workers and migrant workers will show an increasing trend,respectively 240.60 million and 1673.12 million population.(4) Farmers'income structure. The paper analyzes mainly from poor population, net income per capita and consumption structure. Poor population decreased and net income per capita was gradually increasing from 1998 to 2007. The prediction shows that with poor population decreasing, net income per capita increases.Consumption structure mainly analyzed durable consumer goods and energy consumption structure change. Durable consumer goods includs refrigerators, freezers, television sets, motorcycles, telephones and computers.With implanting the returning farmland to forest project,it increased the income of farmers, so the demand of durable consumer goods increase gradually.Coal,firewood and gas utilization reduced, hybrid energy utilization increased.(5) Food security.This part mainly includes unit area grain yield, grain planting area, total crop planting area and total grain yield. From 1998 to 2000, unit area grain yield, grain planting area, total crop planting area and total grain yield showed an downward trend. In the beginning, they changed a little; later period, they rised steadily. Among them, compared with before returning farmland to forest project, the average grain yield increased 13.93% from 2004 to 2006. The total grain sown area and total crop planting area increased 17.76% and 64.78% respectively in 2008, comparing with 2000. Total grain yield in 2009 was 1.26 times in 2000. For China's food security forecasting analysis, we know that the development trend of unit area grain yield, grain planting area, total crop planting area and total grain yield is basically the same. Before returning farmland to forest project, they show an downward trend. In the beginning, they changed a little; later period, they rised steadily. This shows the implementation of the returning farmland to forest project isn't to China's food security problems.
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