| Innovation is one of the most important factors to change human's fate. Innovation is also the core factor for modern enterprises to survive in the drastic market competition. In the current era of globalization, marketization, knowledge and network, enterprises increasingly need to gain competitive advantage through innovation in the fierce market competition. Therefore, it has important theoretical and practical value to insight into the innovation diffusion, analyze the key factors and forecast the trend of innovation diffusion. This is also the reason that studies of innovation diffusion prosper for several decades and always occupy an important place in market research.Innovation diffusion is a very complicated market process, usually experienced the following steps:entering the market, taking-off, sustaining and completing etc. Different factors will affect the process of innovation diffusion during all phases, but the successful diffusion of innovation finally depends on whether consumers will accept or purchase the innovations. Therefore, it is of great significance to delve into the essence of diffusion, investigate the laws and morphological characters of diffusion from the perspective of consumer. The studies on innovation diffusion from this perspective is still in the preliminary stage, achievements on these projects at both home and abroad are still limited. This dissertation expects to obtain a worthy search fruit towards investigating and exploring the mechanism of innovation diffusion from the perspective of consumer.Since Bass firstly proposed the innovation diffusion model in 1969, scholars have made systematical and profound studies on these issues for a long-term, and get plentiful results in the field of innovation diffusion research. Along with the continuous development of research on innovation diffusion, methods and theories of different discipline fields are more and more integrated to the realm, particularly the development and maturity of simulation technology provide a new way for diffusion search and make the more thorough investigation of many concrete questions in the realm possible. The researches of innovation diffusion are a great subject, which include many of researches into specific issue and have great values in theory and practical significance. By the technique of simulation, this dissertation is focused on the investigation and analysis of a series of unstudied questions about innovation diffusion under the two situations:the market with single innovation diffusion and the market with two competed products. Although some important questions about innovation diffusion have already studied, this dissertation also from different angles and levels to make thorough exploration on them.The dissertation considers the consumer's heterogeneity in the reality, for example, different consumers have different demands, different object structures, and different decision-making behaviors, which will result in different results of innovation diffusion. Besides, the decisions made by consumers who are belonging to the society are not only relevant to their individual features but also influenced by the social environment. With the advancement of telecommunication technology and greater internet penetration of daily life, the communications of the consumers are more convenient and more frequent; the role of social effects on consumers' decision-making has become more and more important. So studying the influence of consumers'network structure on innovation diffusion has great significance. In this dissertation we mainly study the innovation diffusion through a bottom-up method, based on analysis of consumer's heterogeneity and decision-making difference at the individual level, we investigate consumers' cognition and decision rule for innovation by analyzing the basic states of consumer. In this dissertation we also establish a decision model by using the principles and techniques of ABM, to simulate issues about innovation diffusion, and research into the rule and characteristics of single innovation diffusion. In addition, the dissertation applies complicated network theory and method, in order to investigate the effects of network on innovation diffusion through placing consumer individual within network contexts.In the part of the simulation and analysis about single innovation, the simulation is performed at the Repast Simphony by using the principles and techniques of ABM, and the analysis is from both micro and macro point of view. From micro view,we describes and depicts the characters of consumer agent; from macro view, we reveals the process and result of innovation diffusion systematically,then investigates the key and concrete questions this paper cares about in detail. Besides, the dissertation places consumer individual within network contexts and applies complicated network theory and method. On this basis, it investigates the effects of the structure of small-world networks and scale-free networks and the scope of local-word on consumer decision-making and innovation diffusion. The results of simulation are analyzed and validated by SPSS 16.0 software. Through simulation and analysis, we study the influences of the quality of the innovation, advertising intensity and delivery time, network topology, consumers'interaction and the local world size on innovation diffusion, and made a series of research results. Specifically include the following:(1) While investigating the impacts of the quality of the innovation on innovation diffusion, simulation results show that the quality of innovation itself has a crucial influence on diffusion. The better the quality, the better the diffusion results are, which mainly reflected in two aspects:the cumulative number of adopters and the diffusion rate.(2) While investigating the impacts of the interaction between quality and advertising on innovation diffusion, under the simulation scenarios of this search, we find that, even if the product quality is worse, innovation diffusion could eventually hit the market of complete diffusion result by the way of high-intensity stimulation of advertisement. But it also can be found that the adopters who have negative appraisal on the innovation are in the overwhelming majority. The simulation results show that When the quality of innovative products was mostly at a medium level (Q=0.5), its interaction with the following two ads strategies:(1) Ads place continuously for 50 rounds at 50 rounds intervals, and the advertise intensity is 0.05;(2) Ads place continuously for 10 rounds at 50 rounds intervals, and the advertise intensity is 0.01, will achieve better results of innovation diffusion. When the quality of innovative products is high enough (Q=0.8),just the right amount of advertisement stimulation could hit very nice diffusion effect. According to this diffusion result under the simulation scenarios of this search, the innovation whose quality is 0.8 could complete the whole diffusion process rapidly by advertising stimulation, and achieve full diffusion after about 50 rounds.(3) While investigating the impacts of advertising method on innovation diffusion, the dissertation pays attention to the effect discrepancy between the centralized advertising and the pulse advertising, and compares these two advertising methods. Under the simulation scene of this thesis, simulation results show that for the same advertising intensity and the same advertising cycle, the effect of centralized advertising on innovation diffusion will be significantly better than the effect of pulse advertising.(4) While investigating the impacts of the interaction between advertising cycle and advertising intensity on innovation diffusion, the study find that, the interaction between advertising cycle and advertising intensity could generate certain effect on innovation diffusion.(5) In the investigation of the effects of the structure of small-world networks and scale-free networks and the scope of local-word on innovation diffusion. This thesis simulates different innovation diffusion in different network structures and different size of local word, and gets different results. Through simulation and analysis, we can find that the difference network topologies and different sizes of the local world will have a various impact to innovation diffusion.(6) In the investigation of the effects of the ratio of seed consumer on innovation diffusion, simulation results under the simulation scenarios of this search show that, the degree of innovation diffusion will present a gradually elevated situation with the with the increased of seed consumer's ratio, and they are relevant. The initial ratio of seed consumer will affect the degree of innovation diffusion, and the effect will be a little larger in BA network.It is only an ideal state that Single innovation is in diffusion in the market, especially in today's fierce market competition; this state is actually very difficult to exist. Usually two or more innovations will exist in market simultaneously. In order to obtain the desired market share, different innovation will form complex relationships among them (i.e. competition), then will show different market result of innovation diffusion. Early studies of innovation diffusion focus on the monopolized product or a type of products, in the last decade, a number of innovation diffusion researchers began to consider such issues as effects of competition. Foreign scholars have been using simulation technology to study some specific issues, but the domestic researches still remain in the stage of mathematical modeling, and domestic research results are very little by using simulation technology to study such problemsThus, this dissertation studies the innovation diffusion of two competitive products through simulation technology, and establishes a theoretical model about two competing innovation diffusion by drawing on Bass model and Lotka-Volterra model, and conducts a simulation study on the three typical questions through using the system dynamics simulation software, Vensim PLE. This dissertation preliminarily draws the following conclusions:(1) While studying on the comparison problems about the importance to two competitive innovation diffusion between the effect of advertising and the effect of consumer word of mouth on consumers, simulation studies have shown that:the changes of advertising effects on consumers and of the reputation effects on consumers will impact the results of innovation diffusion to a certain degree, and the importance of advertising effects on consumers to the diffusion results is greater than the role of word of mouth.(2) While studying on the influence of advertising or word of mouth to two competitive innovation diffusion, the simulation results show that:the change of advertising and word of mouth indeed significantly influence the result of two competitive innovation diffusion.(3) While studying on the influence of simultaneously enhance or attenuate the effects of advertising and word of mouth to two competitive innovation diffusion, the simulation results show that:if the effects of advertising and word of mouth change with certain trend, which will do significantly affect the diffusion results of market with two innovations. Under the simulation scenario of this study, if simultaneously enhance the effects on advertising and word of mouth, the results of this innovation diffusion can be significantly improved; if simultaneously attenuate the effects on advertising and word of mouth, the results of rival innovation diffusion can be improved to some extent.(4) While studying on the influence of advertising intensity and timing of ads on innovation diffusion, the simulation results show that:the impact of advertising intensity on innovation diffusion results is significantly greater than the impact of delaying advertising on innovation diffusion; Along with the enlargement of the advertising intensity, the innovation diffusion results are getting better and better, and the impact of delaying advertising on innovation diffusion is getting smaller and smaller; when the advertising intensity of innovation is 0.01, compared to its competitors, the product has basically occupied the whole market, the innovative achieves a very good diffusion results.In summary, the dissertation systematically studies on innovation diffusion from the consumer perspective, by using simulation techniques integrally, and investigates and explores a series of concerned questions about innovation diffusion under the two situations:the market with single innovation diffusion and the market with two competitive products. This dissertation also investigates the morphology and the rule of innovation diffusion, and achieves some results having important theoretical and practical value.
|
PDF Full Text Request