The Research On The Reliability Of The Supply Chain Based On The Uncertain Of The Lead Time And Quantity Delivered

Through continuous development of economy, the modern business competition has developed from a simple enterprise to enterprise competition gradually evolved with the core enterprise-based competition. Supply chain system is a complex system, which make up of a train of node-enterprises. There are so many problems in its operation, which leads to the whole supply. In the paper, chain system uncertain is researched. In the view of supply-demand balance, we study not only the supply chain time reliability between the upper reaches node enterprise and the core enterprise, but also supply chain amount reliability and the supply chain reliability between the lower reaches node enterprise and the core enterprise.At the beginning, this paper analyzes the current problems of supply chain reliability and expounds stochastic process, Markov process and the principle of Go Method respectively. To the core enterprise supply chain, this paper summarizes the influence factors of the supply chain reliability. And On that basis, the reliability model is established. Then we analyse lead time by Markov process and obtain Markov state transition model. And on that basis, we obtain stable effective degrees of the supply chain time reliability. At the same time, for core enterprise supply chain, we get the3d map of time stability effective degrees according to MATLAB programming. When the core enterprise is the main research object, for the production control subsystem, through establishing the truncated normal distribution, we obtain supply chain number reliability function, and research the impact on the reliability of supply chain by qualitative pattern. For the whole supply chain, GO model is established through the principle of GO method. When reliability function of three the basic unit in the supply chain, such as suppliers, manufacturers and sellers obey the index distribution, the whole reliability function and failure rate function of supply chain are obtained, and the function graphic is made. At the same time, we also obtain the relationship among failure density function f(t), reliability function R,(t) and function failure rate λs(t).Finally, on the based of above theories and methods, combination of the actual situation of an enterprise case, which is called as H enterprise, we calculate the supply chain number reliability in all the types of the supports, and obtain supplier B can be used as a leading supplier of H enterprise. Further, we can consider suppliers B as the long-term strategic partner relationship. At the same time, for the production processes of subsystem and the core enterprise, we also calculated their supply chain number reliability. And we analyze and evaluate the entire supply chain. In the view of entirety reliability of supply chain, we obtain the reliability function formula and function graphic of supply chain. Through the above theory and method analysis, it is found that them indeed can solve the problem of the enterprise, thus, to provide the basis for enterprise’s decision.