The Research About Evaluation And Optimization On Reliability Of Wood Supply Chain Under Uncertainty

Under the new situation,especially the implementation of "One Belt And One Road"strategy and the vigorous development of cross-border e-commerce,the timber industry has faced unprecedented opportunities and challenges.Through a large number of domestic and foreign literatures,the relevant research status of wood supply chain is introduced.This paper summarizes the theory of supply chain,system reliability,supply chain reliability and so on,defines the timber supply chain,and puts forward two meanings of the definition of the reliability of the timber supply chain.Reliability evaluation index system to the existing members of the supply chain enterprise's advantages and disadvantages were analyzed,and the link was proposed and the timber supply chain reliability evaluation index system,and illustrates the superiority of the index system,the quantitative calculation of the timber supply chain link design example and the overall reliability.To optimize the purchasing link of timber supply chain by improving the demand of wood purchase.Based on the data of wood demand from 2005 to 2013 as raw data,the traditional grey,unbiased grey and sliding unbiased grey model were established,and the demand of wood in 2014-2015 was predicted by three models.Through a model test of fitting effect and comparing the relative error of prediction,the selection of the optimal prediction effect sliding unbiased grey-forecasting model for correction model,based on the state of relative error distribution basis,considering the actual situation for the general Markov method is optimized,in order to optimize the correction method of the forecast data are corrected.The results showed that the average relative error of the sliding unbiased grey prediction model was reduced from 6.44%to 1.49%when the improved Markov modification was made,and the prediction error decreased by 4.95%.Based on purchasing link reliability optimization,improved grey Markov model predicting the demand of timber procurement and procurement planning strategy,make lumber supply of raw materials procurement and improves the reliability of 0.02,promoted 0.02 overall reliability.Consider the buffer inventory strategy to optimize the supply chain reliability of the timber supply chain.The function of buffer stock is introduced,and the consumption process of buffer stock is buffered.Through the design example,the effect of two conditions on the reliability optimization of the wood supply chain is analyzed.Considering the increasing cost of buffer inventory strategy,a multi-objective optimization model of supply chain cost and reliability is established,and the calculation example is solved.The improvement of reliability also reflects the improvement of the supply chain's ability to respond to risks.So considering the timber supply chain in the face of uncertain environment,on the basis of timber import procurement risk formation mechanism,system of comprehensive identification in the process of China's timber import enterprises procurement risk and prevention countermeasures are put forward.Identify the objective risks faced by timber import enterprises from five aspects of market environment,supplier interruption,contract,policy and transportation.From the four aspects of purchasing corruption,decision making,strategy selection and warehousing management,we can identify the subjective risks faced by timber import.