Study Of Reliability Diagnosis Methods For Supply Chain In Manufacture

The21st century’s competition is no longer between the enterprises, but the supply chain’s competition. Supply chain is the foundation of enterprise’s survival and development and reliability is the guarantee of realizing the operation of supply chain. First, as supply chain is a kind of more complex system, it simultaneously connects the supplier, the manufacturer, the distributor and the user, each link has the latent risk. If any link had problems, can make the hole supply chain have serious influence; Next, supply chain being a continual dynamic system, various members are linked together and depend on each other. If one link has problem, possibly affects other links and overall system’s reliability service. At the same time, supply chain as a kind of expanded enterprise, its coordination movement is the establishment of its member enterprises as well as based on member’s reliability service foundation. Therefore, the research of supply chain’s reliable diagnosis method and the supply chain reliability optimization measure had very important function to discover the factors of supply chain’s reliability and the improvement of supplies chain’s reliability.This article’s studied the manufacturing supply chain reliability and approach on the basis of summarizing theories and research harvest for research. Based on the thorough analysis of supply chain reliability diagnosis method’s present study situation and the tendency, this article discussed the supply chain reliable classification as well as the supply chain various structural model fail-safe analysis by the system reliable project theory. This article made a third-level supply chain structure which is composed by the supplier, the manufacturer (core enterprise) and the distributor. And disscussed supply chain’s reliable diagnosis question at the basis of the structure. The article introduced the fault tree analytic method and its application in the supply chain reliability diagnosis. First, constructed the supply chain reliability diagnosis’s fault tree model; Second, has made qualitative and the quantitative analysis to the model; Then, based on the above, proposed the limitation of the fault tree analytic method which applied in the supply chain reliability diagnosis.In view of the fault tree analytic method in the supply chain reliability diagnosis application’s limitation, introduced the Bayes network (BN) of the supply chain reliability diagnosis. Through to the BN principle’s analysis, proposed applies BN in the supply chain reliability diagnosis the feasibility. At the same time, the fault tree model transformation is BN, through has to BN to the ringless chart and the conditional probability distribution list (CPT) determining the nature of with quantitative analysis, elaborated BN in the supply chain reliability diagnosis application superiority. Selects the Hubei Province some lamps and lanterns factory to take the supply chain reliability diagnosis the object of study, carries on the case analysis, confirms the Bayes network analytic method in the supply chain reliability diagnosis application. Proposed the enhancement of supply chain’s reliability, the E supply chain, the supply chain operation flow reorganization and the formulation supply chain risk management and so on certain supply chain reliability safeguard mechanism.This article focused on system’s analysis which is reliability of supply chain system. From the related concept introducing to the reliable model’s establishment and the supply chain system’s reliability diagnosis as well as the supply chain system reliability enhancement were discussed. And for the first time the Bayes network (BN) was applied in the supply chain’s reliability research and discussed the supply chain’s reliability diagnosis methods. At the same time, compared with the traditional reliability diagnosis methods, unified example to analyze the Bayes network’s superiority.