The Point-explode Increasing Orderliness Of Chinese Automobile Market Research

China has sold more than eighteen million vehicles in 2010, exceeding the US ,who become the largest automobile consumption market in the world. It has important theory and practice meaning to study the increasing rule of Chinese automobile market. In abroad ,the study about automobile market increasing rule is based on the retain quantity and renewal demand. Interiorly the research is based on the requirement of new vehicle, specially the demand of new cars. At present, the increasing automobile market disciplinarian is fasten on long term forecast on macroscopical section and individual consumption on microcosmic section. The thesis study is focus on demonstration research about developmental automobile market. Via the demonstration search and system model study, forecast the future develop character,evolution track,rise speed and variety trend, provide estimate gist and system support for overall arrangement of Chinese automobile industry.By demonstration of Chinese automobile industrial increasing rule, the disquisition search basic increasing law about automobile market. From market research, summarize relation theories and study actuality, the research logic is based on the theory of industry centralizing, establish the point-explode forecast model, lodge accelerate the point-explode and the acts of fasten opportunity. The paper is divided into eight chapters.In the first chapter, the author has mostly analyse the history background and develop status of market, summarize a series of theories, such as: the theory of Adam Smith,David Ricardo,Thomas Robert Malthus,Alfred Marshall,Joseph Alois Schumpeter,Roy Forbes Harrod,Robert Merton Solow,Paul Romer,Francois Perroux,A.Weber and D.L.Meadows, etc. In this chapter, I analyse the market application in practice, overpass the analysis about industry background and the deficient of ancient research ,illustrate the aim,meaning and mostly contents.In second chapter,I analyse the narrow sense and broad sense concept of market, research world and Chinese automobile market, discuss the advantage and latency problem about Chinese automobile market. From three market factors: consume main body,purchasing power,buy desire, according on infection factors and index choice to analyse the modeling condition. In the chapter , analyse the four patterns about Chinese automobile market: periodicity undulation, structure alteration, ladder alteration, point-explode increase. In this chapter, I analyse the point-explode increasing mechanism about automobile in certain area centralization of automobile economic activity.From the definition of point-explode, in the third chapter I ananlyse the practice cause and theory cause of point-explode, study the characteristics of centralize domino offect, bring forward to using Geordie to fix quantify income distribute difference degree. Based on Michael Porter's value chain theory, ananyse industry increasing four division factors: essential condition,demand condition, relating property,enterprise stratagem and competition .Reviewing the main index of region country economy and society develop, analyse the point-explode increasing reason of Chinese automobile industry.First, in the fourth chapter, I study the industry centralize actuality about Chinese automobile vehicle enterprises and components firms. Choose DongFeng automobile to analyse, from this introduce ShiYan city of Hubei province to study the criterion of point-explode. According to Geordie coefficient and the vehicle quantity which per 1000 people have, to choose these cities which have been point-exploded. Colligate proportion area index of seven province, via the vehicle regional quantity difference grads to fix the point-explode time, Depending on the local government statistic annals calculate whole index and personal index , and through the proportion and CPI to obtain the estimation standard of Chinese automobile market point-explode .In the fifth chapter, based on history data, I establish economy develop forecast model. According to the identify character of increasing trend and region statistic information ,constitute separately increasing forecast model, prognosticate the point-explode time about every province.In the sixth chapter, I has studied influence the automobile market point-explode, also research the personal equal income astringency problem about developed economy area and developing economy area. In 2023,Chinese personal income of developed area will be 1.25 times than developing area, some provinces will attain point-explode increasing condition. In this chapter, I forecast that the Chinese automobile market will achieve saturation in 2025,according to the inhabitant income constringency and forecast saturation time, the paper correct the economy increasing model of some developing provinces.In the seventh chapter, I expatiate the power headspring of point-explode: industry centralize and economy develop. From government angle, it should develop centralize industry, cultivate characteristic industry community, develop specialization industry space overall arrangement. The government provide safeguard for the flow person with ability,technique,capital and market, support the develop of industry centralize. On enterprise side, the companies seize the area point-explode chance of future automobile market, combine every province's point-explode forecast to choose the best occasion, thrown in fitting production, advance the centralize policy about components enterprise.In the last chapter, the author summarize research fruit and innovation points, bring forward the next research and develop direction.In the future, Chinese automobile market will be in high increasing posture, surely expedite automobile industry developing march. Some factors, such as develop characteristic,change trend and fluctuate of automobile market, directly touch the infection of investment. The enterprises should hold the increasing law of automobile market and obtain the victory in competition.