The Influence Of China's Trade And Urbanization On Carbon Dioxide Emissions

At Present, the development of low-carbon eonomy has becomes the right choice for the world. China, as the largest development country in the world, also has becomes the most carbon emissions country. In this context, how to coordinate trade, urbanization and carbon emissions becomes a key issue.The relationship of trade, urbanization and carbon emissions is a complex system. Trade and urbanization are the driving force of economic growth, but also led to carbon emissions. In this paper, both theoretical and empirical studies the influence of trade, urbanization, other variables to carbon emissions. Around several determinants of impacts of carbon emissions, paper searches a path suitable for China's carbon reduction.Based on input-output analysis (10A), paper accounts of China's emoboied carbon emissions in import and export trade in 2002,2005 and 2007 three years. Insertion and fitting methods was extended the data from 2002 to 2009, then using factor decomposition to analysis contribution factors in export trade emissions. The results show that China had a 20% carbon surplus of the total volume in the trade, indicating the emissions of greenhouse gases driving force not only from China's own consumption, but there are also external demand. Structural decomposition analysis of the model calculations show that increased carbon emissions is largely due to the continuous growth of total exports, followed by intermediate changes in production technology.According to the characteristics of China's current economic growth, based on the panel data of China's 30 provinces from 1995 to 2008, and divided the 30 provinces into the east, central and west areas, to empirically studies China's carbon emissions and their impact factors each regions. The long term equilibrium relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and explanatory variables is studied by the method of panel co-integration.. paper found that the level of urbanization, per capita GDP, energy intensity and carbon emissions have a significant positive correlation. This shows that China is still in the development of industrialization, urbanization path, far from the turning point to decrease the carbon emissions. At the same time, scenario analysis of carbon emissions volume is predicted in 2020, China's economic growth is based on the cost of resources and the environment, which should choose one of the two choices from the options protect the environment or to maintain growth. Using the Monte Carlo simulation to dynamic analysis the growth rate of carbon emissions, and get the probability distribution of regional growth,which found the central areas in more low-carbon.Using spatial econometric model to analysis the impact factors of China's provincial carbon emissions and regional differences. Spatial lag and spatial error model analysis confirmed that the carbon emissions of Chinese provinces have the obvious spatial dependence and spatial differences. Meanwhile, the spatial panel data analysis showed that per capita CO2 emissions has a significant positive impact on the space transfer,and the environmental Kuznets curve of province's per capita CO2 emissions was inverted U-shaped, indicating that if the level of income reaches a certain level, will be to curb greenhouse gas emissions, and improve the ecological state of the environment.In the research of the carbon footprint of the four municipalities, paper found that urban population density, public transportation and per capita carbon emissions were negatively correlated, the higher population density, the more convenient public transportation, the less carbon emissions per capita; and the level of the urban economy, industrial share of GDP and per capita carbon emissions are positively correlated, based on low-carbon urban systems, combined with low-carbon urban development patterns of Europe, the United States and Japan, and summed up a China's own low-carbon city model.