Study On Dynamic Evaluation And Potential Prediction Of Land Intensive Use In Development Zone

Dvelopment Zones were established for developing economic in China. With the process of reform and opening pushed forward continually, the important role of DDevelopment Zones were more prominent in China's economic development, and will be increasingly becoming an important base for industrial transfer and technology innovation. The} played an important role in the stimulating national and local social economic development, and created the conditions for enhancing the competitiveness of regional industry and participation in international competition. The Development Zones" contribution of developing national and local Socio-economic was obvious, but the land use problems were also increasingly attracted people's attention in the course of its development. The problems were mainly reflected that land use intensity was not high:land use efficiency was low; the number of idle land was big; land use structure was not reasonable and land use was sprawled, and so on. In order to implement the spirit of the Seventeenth Party Congress, adhere to the basic national policy of saving resources, promote scientific development, and stick to 18 Billion Mu of arable land red line, to protect economic and social were comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable developed, the State Council and Ministry of Land and Resource issued a notice in 2008. The notice required carrying out land intensive use evaluation of all levels and various types Development Zone in China, strengthening land use management, and promoting land economical and intensive use in Development Zone.The land intensive use is a dynamic process of change in Development Zone; its land utilization level and potential scale are changed timely with the change of land development, utilization, operation and management. Since the systemic and complexity of land intensive use level evaluation and potential scale prediction in Development Zone, it is difficult to timely monitor the change of land intensive use level and potential scale, but it is feasible to evaluate dynamically land intensive use and calculate potential scale basic on the same time point per year in Development Zone. By comparing the land intensive use level between adjacent years, it can not only reveal the changes of land intensive use degree, but also reveal the changes of index of evaluating land intensive use in Development Zone. According to the changes of index of evaluating land intensive use between adjacent years, we can further find the restrict factors of land intensive use in Development Zone.-It not only can define the potential scale of expected land, but also can reveal the expected change speed of land intensive use and the largest change space by predicting land intensive use potential scale in Development Zone. Thus, by evaluating dynamically the land intensive use degree and predicting land intensive use potential scale, it can reveal the changes of land intensive use degree and restrict factors from the perspective of the past, and reveal the change trend of land intensive use level from the perspective of the future, too. It can direct to improve the land intensive use level, but also can provide a scientific basis for drafting practical policies and measures to use land intensively in Development Zone.In this paper, the methods of dynamic evaluation of land intensive use level and potential prediction were system studied and applied by the methods of combined with theory and practice, qualitative and quantitative, dynamic and static, mathematical model and mathematical statistics, and so on. There were 10 chapters in this paper, consisted of five parts:in the first part, there were study summary, the evaluation theoretical basis, the research of driving mechanism, influence factor analysis, the construction of evaluation index system and the measurement of evaluation index weight of land intensive use.about dynamic evaluation and potential prediction in Development Zone. This part contained 5 chapters, and the first chapter was an introduction. This chapter proposed the research objectives and research contents of this paper from the beginning of the study background and significance. The second chapter was the literature summarizes. This chapter reviewed research progress of the construction of evaluation index system, the measurement of evaluation index weight and evaluation technology of Development Zone in our country. Also described the theory of intensive land use abroad, ways and means to land intensive use and evaluation methods. The third chapter was the evaluation theoretical basis of land intensive use. This chapter described the theories of economics, ecology and some theories of other aspects which were closely related to land intensive use. and analyzed the important role of bove theory to guide land intensive use in Development Zone. Through the relevant theoretical research, we can know the development direction of land intensive use. The driving mechanisms of land intensive use were studied in the fourth chapter. This chapter mainly researched the internal drive mechanism and the external driving mechanism of land intensive use in Dvelopment Zone. The fifth chapter was influence factor analvsis. the construction of evaluation index svstem and the measurement of evaluation index weight of land intensive use in Development Zone. The evaluation index system was established on the basis of influence factor analysis of land intensive use. and evaluation index weights were measured by AHP about Nanchang Economic and Technological Development Zone in this chapter. The second part was something about the research of land intensive use dynamic evaluation and potential prediction technology, it was the sixth chapter. In this chapter, land use dynamic data collection method, evaluation unit dividing method, calculating method of critical composite score of evaluation grade intensity, and theory and method of the GIS space anlysis model, the ideal value correction method. DEA method, TOPSIS method were studied about land intensive use in Dvelopment Zone, and theory and method of the SD model. CAR models, markov models and other mathematical model were studied about potential predication in Dvelopment Zone. The third part was the empirical research of dynamic evaluation and potential predication about land intensive use in Dvelopment Zone. This section contained the seventh chapter and eighth chapter. The seventh chapter was empirical research of land intensive use degree evaluation. GIS space anlysis model, the ideal value correction method, TOPSIS method were verified as an example of Nanchang Economic and Technological Development Zone in this chapter.and verified the DEA method. The eighth chapter was empirical research of potential prediction about land intensive use in Dvelopment Zone.This chapter taked the Nanchang Economic and Technological Development Zone as an example, confirmed the feasibility, application process and potential predication with many kinds of models about different potential type of Dvelopment Zone in 2010-2012 year. The fourth part is the way and policy measures of land intensive use in Dvelopment Zone. This part was the ninth chapter, this chapter was mainly based on the evaluation theories, the driving mechanisms and empirical research to study the way and policy measures about land intensive from many aspects in Dvelopment Zone.The last part was the conclusion and prospect. This chapter summarized the research conclusion, Innovation and Shortcoming, and points out the subsequent research direction.Through above research, the main research conclusions obtained as follows:The aspect of theoretical mainly included:(1) Summarized and analyzed the evaluation theories of land intensive use;(2) Studied the driving mechanisms, analyzed influence factors, and constructed evaluation index system of land intensive use in Dvelopment Zone.The aspect of techniques mainly include:(1)Land use data acquisition method; (2) The GIS space anlysis model was researched and constructed about land intensive use evaluation in Dvelopment Zone:(3)Studied the way of dynamic evaluation with the ideal value correction method and the TOPSIS method of land intensive use evaluation in Dvelopment Zone;(4)Studied the way of DEA model about scale evaluation of land intensive use in Dvelopment Zone;(5) Studied the way of using SD model. CAR model, markov model and other mathematical models to predict potential of land intensive use in Dvelopment Zone.The empirical results mainly included:(1) The acquisition results of land use data and the related data between 2004 and 2009 in Nanchang Economic and Technological Development Zone:(2)The results of the ideal value of evaluation indexes; (3)The results of applying GIS space anlysis model;(4) Dynamic evaluation results of ideal value correction method and TOPSIS method showed that the land intensive use degree was increasing in Nanchang Economic and Technological Development Zone, and improved faster before 2007. speed was slowing down after 2007:(5) The results of applying DEA model:(6)The total scale of potential will be 556.11 hectares,432.95 hectares and 322.76 hectares from 2010 to 2012:(7) Expansion potential, intensity potential, structure potentia will decrease, management potential will increase from 2010 to 2012.The theories and methods of dynamic evaluaiton and potential prediction of land intensive use about Dvelopment Zone was studied systematically in this paper.and the technical methods studied were used in practice, and achieved expected results.The feasibility of technical methods was also verified. It can provide technical reference in dynamic evaluation and potential prediction about land intensive use in Dvelopment Zone. Although technical methods of dynamic evaluation and potential prediction about land intensive use was studied and discussed from theory to practice in Dvelopment Zone, there are still many problems in this paper, these problems will further research.