Study On Scale Development Of Photovoltaic Generation Project In China

Rapid economic growth brings to energy consumption's acceleration, and electricity consumption market in China is facing tremendous pressure. Renewable energy generation technologies to solve the problem of power shortage in China are important ways. Compared with other types of technologies, China's photovoltaic generation project development is too slower, far behind the world average rate, mainly due to:a more comprehensive scientific evaluation method and a more reasonable distribution mechanism are lacked, and PV project stakeholders fail to realize the overall project value, or can not get reasonable benefits; Second, a complete industry chain hasn't yet built, and business development is always disordered; Third, China market incentive systems and regulatory systems are not perfect.In this dissertation, qualitative and quantitative analysis methods are used, which includs photovoltaic generation project comprehensive effect evaluation method, completed way of the photovoltaic industry, technology and market development path and strategies, empirical analysis and the prediction of future scale of photovoltaic generation project development. The main content can be summarized as follows:First, China's overall effect evaluation of photovoltaic generation project is finished. According to the project evaluation theory and photovoltaic generation projects'own characteristics, the combined evaluation effect model of photovoltaic generation project is established, and integrated photovoltaic generation project evaluation index system is built. Benefits and behavior influence of all stakeholders of the photovoltaic generation project are analysed in use of stakeholder analysis theory.Second, China's photovoltaic generation project scale development paths of industry and technology are researched. The dissertation builds China's PV industry value chain. On this basis, game theory model is applied to prove the need to build the photovoltaic industry chain of horizontal and vertical models. DEA method is used in China's photovoltaic industry scale and technical efficiency of enterprises is analyzed. The dissertation determines the size of China's PV industry efficiency and technology development, and proposes a more scientific photovoltaic technology development path.Third, marketing strategy analysis of China's photovoltaic project scale development is finished. The dissertation compares domestic and foreign policies, then applies evolutionary game theory to build market incentives subsidy model. The strategies of market-based incentives and market adoption are proposed.Fourth, China's photovoltaic generation project scale prediction is finished. Using simulation software, the dissertation programms photovoltaic power generation project development scenarios, and determines the size of the change rate, and predicts the photovoltaic generation project market saturation scale.