| The sustainable development is key issue of policy-oriented agricultural insurance. Since newpilot experiment of agricultural insurance implemented in2004,many provinces of China have formeddifferent kinds of development modes of agricultural insurance. The prominent problem lies inimperfect of catastrophic risk management system and lag in establishment of long-term mechanism,which constraint sustainable development of agricultural insurance. Due to short pilot time and lack ofdata, it is hard to apply actuarial method to test the sustainability of these modes. The system dynamicsis called lab of policy and tragedy. The operation of agricultural insurance has properties of dynamicand feedback, so the method of system dynamics is valid in analyzing behavior of participants ofagricultural insurance for test the sustainability of these modes in advance, yet there is few suchdomestic and international research.One purpose of the research is to build system dynamic models to test whether main modes ofagricultural insurance in China were sustainable under different catastrophic risk scenarios. The otherpurpose is to design basic mode of sustainable development for policy-oriented agricultural insurance inChina and to test the basic mode through application.Based on theory of agricultural insurance and analysis of agricultural insurance operation modesin China and foreign countries, firstly, system dynamic models of typical agricultural insurance modesin Jiangsu province and Beijing city are respectively built to test the sustainability of two modes and toimprove the system of agricultural insurance.As for agricultural insurance in Jiangsu province of China, the simulation research takes Xuzhoucity as example, subdivided into counties.17scenarios grouped five types are designed to reveal thetrends of catastrophe reserves of insurer and government in counties, city and province undercatastrophe in future20years.6scenarios grouped two types are proposed to improve the mode ofagricultural insurance in Jiangsu. The results of simulation indicate that rules revisions of usingcatastrophe reserve of insurer and counties' government to indemnity simultaneously improve theoperation efficiency of government funds, strengthen the ability of insurer and counties' government todeal with catastrophe, and contributes to sustainable development of agricultural insurance in Jiangsu.Similarly,10scenarios are designed to dynamically simulate the operation mode of agriculturalinsurance in Beijing in2000-2030. Three reinsurance modes which include stop-loss reinsurancepurchased by government from reinsurer, government providing reinsurance for insurer and reinsurancepurchased by insurer from reinsurer are compared. The result indicates that current operation mode ofstop-loss reinsurance purchased by government from reinsurance companies doesn't optimize usageefficiency of government funds.Secondly, according to requirement of sustainable development, the basic frame of policy-orientedagricultural insurance with regional differentiation in China is designed from aspects of organizationand operation mode and the inner structure of the basic mode is analyzed. Moreover,5levels protestsystem under catastrophic risk is proposed in basic mode. Finally, the research compares and tests thedesign of basic mode, taking agricultural insurance in Beijing as example. Results indicate that the basicmode of agricultural insurance is designed rationally and contributes to increasing efficiency in the useof government funds and sustainability of insurer, which is likely to be as a reference for improving theagricultural insurance system in different region of China.The innovation of the study lies in first applying system dynamics to simulation for sustainabilityof development modes in agricultural insurance, thus explores a new method of policy analysis on agricultural insurance. Furthermore, the research tests the sustainability of agricultural insurance modesin Jiangsu province and in Beijing, designs basic mode of sustainable development for agriculturalinsurance in China and proposes applicable five levels catastrophic risk protest system of excess loss,which made theoretical and practical sense for perfecting the system of China's agricultural insuranceand enhancing sustainability of development modes in agricultural insurance.
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