Social Accounting Matrices For China: Construction And Models

The external effect and policy impact effect to economic activity through multiplechannels to achieve, to predict the shock of those impacts, we must first understand thechannel of those impacts effect, must know which transactions were made for whatpurpose between whom and whom recently. The traditional national accounts and otheraccounting mode although have covered such as output, income, expenditure and financialtransactions and so on a large amount of information, but in the reflection of the crossrelations between departments, namely the problem of " from where to where" appearssome problems. Social accounting matrix(SAM) is now the best way to describe variousinteractive contact in a country (region) current economy (ECB,2004).SAM is a simplified and complete expression of the system of national accounts inmatrix form, is a comprehensive macro-economic data frame, can be used for a country'smacro-economic description. In theory, it contains all flow accounts' datas of the nationalaccounts. In the specific form of expression, SAM includes input-output table, nationalincome and expenditure flows sheet, financial and investment flows sheet, the internationalbalance sheet of payments and other different types of accounts, balance sheets anddepartments in a matrix of national economy balance sheet to the whole inspection. Notonly maintain its unique yet overall, very clearly defines "who is spending? How much isspending? Pay for who?" projects such as. As a data frame, the SAM has many naturaladvantages, therefore, all sorts of economic analysis method based on SAM also emergein an endless stream, such as multiplier analysis, general equilibrium model analysis andso on. In recent years, the research about SAM multiplier in foreign is rich with eachpassing day, SAM preparation and analysis system has become more and more perfect,the current domestic SAM on the establishment and analysis of research but only ingradually development stage, research progeny is limited, and the research level is stillhave a great gap to foreign. Therefore, a systematic study to the Chinese SAM specificcompilation and analysis model is very necessary.This article mainly research the Chinese SAM from four large fields which are the matrix preparation, the extension table calculation and analysis model, the extension tablebased on SAM sequence table of actual calculation and economic analysis. Specific ideasand research main content is: first, based on the United Nations in the previous SNApublished SAM table type, combined with the actual situation of our country public datadesign China SAM table (Type I table&type II table); secondly, based on our country'svarious sources of public data, through each link of no connect to data processing, at thesame time projection section intermediate year unknown data, compilation the ChineseSAM sequence table; third, based on the SAM flow sub matrix between cohesion andbalance the relation as foundation, build the unknown year SAM table calculating modeland economic analysis model; fourth, using the calculation model built in last stepestimating future year's SAM table; fifth, use the preparation and calculation table of SAMsequence as a data base, based on the combination of SAM economic analysis model,select a specific topic for economic analysis.As the theoretical foundation, the first chapter of this article introduced the current SAMrelated theories in detail, including the SAM evolution process, concept, characteristics,principles, applications and other aspects, finally also introduced the research method andcontent, and the major innovation for a specific description. As method support, the article'ssecond chapter mainly introduced those used on SAM compilation and analysis techniques,mainly including the table design, preparation method, balance method, analysis methodfour aspects, for the foundation of innovation in further research on the improvementmethod and innovations.The third chapter mainly discusses the construction of Chinese social accountingmatrix I, II type table. Based on previous SNA announced the SAM standard table todetermine the specific form of Chinese SAM, ended in1968SNA announced the SAM tablebased unifies our country public data information to construct Chinese social accountingmatrix type I table, in2008SNA announced the SAM table type is constructed out of Chinasociety accounting matrix II type table. Further collected all the known data in the I table,use the "Termwise equilibrium " method on the new I table balancing, constructed out of Itype table end table. The type II table was constructed on the I table basis, using the"income transfer method" or" expenditure transfer method" on the part of the matrix are combined conversion structure" Department×Department" flow matrix. Finally, thischapter also compared the "Termwise equilibrium "method's result to the most common"cross entropy (CE)" method's balance result, it shows that the " Termwise equilibrium"method's result get more faithful to the original data.The fourth chapter mainly focuses on the problems of the Chinese SAM calculationand analysis model design. Calculation model is discussed begin from the internal accountand the account balance between the link relation in the SAM table in this paper, after theintroduction of the common SAM static state estimation model based on the matrix,exogenous and endogenous link coefficient matrix estimation of dynamic processing toconstruct the Chinese SAM dynamic link calculation model. Analysis model was based onthe input output model theory, unifies the discussion of domestic and foreign relevant SAMmultiplier model, the single target multiplier analysis model and the multi-objective multiplieranalysis model based on the Chinese SAMs were constructed. Further integration ofProfessor Stone's discussion about balance sheet row model, column model, the ChineseSAM block link analysis model was constructed. The fifth chapter is the Chinese SAMextending table calculation. Combined with the last chapter designed to prolong the tablecalculation model, we start from the SAM control aggregate equilibrium models constructedand estimated, through the prediction of external variables, the prolong of control grossextrapolation and revision, vector decomposition, matrix decomposition, balancedarticulation, type II table calculation steps completed the2009's and2010's Chinese Socialaccounting matrix I, II table's calculation work.The sixth chapter used the1992-2010years' Chinese social accounting matrix I, II typetable for data base design, based on the above analysis model. Some economic analysiswere made. The first is a simple intuitive description for SAM sequence; second is a singletarget multiplier analysis model based on consumer spending, introducted the changesunder the macroeconomic multiplier effect; then a multiple target multiplier analysis modelwas constructed, calculated the three kinds of external policy combination ofmacroeconomic multiplier effect, on three combinations of the multiplier effects of theresults were compared; finally, based on the I table's part of the total volume sequence, andthe table's cross relation between constraints, under the economic theory, constructed and estimate a simplified general equilibrium analysis model based on the Chinese SAM, andsome analysis on the model's regression results were carried out. The seventh chapter is ageneral summary according to the sequence of the article, also combining with thePredecessors' summary, some prospects on Chinese SAM future research's direction weremade.