Multiplier Decomposition And Structural Path Analysis Based On The Social Accounting Matrix Of Henan Province

Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is a form of economic accounting tables reflecting thedouble-entry bookkeeping by single-billing. By connecting the input-output tables with national incomeand production accounts, the SAM thus is able to clearly demonstrate the socioeconomic structure of acountry or a region in a particular or a given year. Based on the data of Henan Province in2007, this articledetailedly described the characteristics, the structure, and data collection of the social accounting matrix.We got the original macro-social accounting matrix first, and then we briefly introduced the RAS levelingmethod and used the prepared Matlab program to realize it. According to the sector classification of theinput-output tables, we subdivided the macro-SAM of Henan Province into42departments.The article briefly described the basic principles of the multiplier analysis and the structured pathanalysis based on SAM. By contrasting Ma multiplier based on the SAM with the IO multiplier based onthe input-output table and explaining the different ranking of the same industry in decomposition method,this article introduced the industrial structure of Henan Province as a whole.Based on the twelfth five-year development plan of Henan Province, this article selected basicindustries (agriculture, construction industry), high-growth industries (food manufacturing and tobaccoprocessing industry, communications equipment, computers and other electronic equipment manufacturing),traditional industries (chemical industry, textile industry)and the services (transportation and warehousingindustry, the financial sector)as the main objects of the expedition, and analyzed these industries bymultiplier analysis and structured path analysis.According to the result of the calculation, this article made some policy recommendationscorresponding with economic development and industrial restructuring of Henan Province.(1)Agriculture,as the basic industry of Henan Province, should expand the industrial chain, extend contacts betweenindustries, promote the driving force in the industries under the continue enhancement on consolidating itsfundamental role.(2)Traditional industries, such as textile and chemical industries, still have a greaterdependence on agriculture and still belong to the labor-intensive industries.In future development, theyneed the introduction of advanced production technology and equipment, improve the process and the upstream and downstream industrial chains, in order to achieve product upgrading and innovation.(3)Thefood manufacturing and tobacco processing industry in the High-growth industries has more direct relationsto other industries.So it can actively introduce leading enterprises and industrial capital, and accelerate thetransfer of undertaking industrial chain relying on industrial gathering areas and backbone enterprises, tobecome a new economic growth point.(4)The Henan Province should focus on the junction role of thetransportation and warehousing industry, and make it to be a strong support of the development of otherindustries, by improving the capacity of transportation, building integrated transport system.(5)Thefinancial industry, the chemical industry, and the transportation and warehousing industry have the leadingrole of capital elements, but mainly through the direct paths, and the capital operation efficiency betweenindustries is not high. The Henan Province should improve the financing system, and strengthen theplatform for capital transactions, in order to fully play the capital effects.(6)When suffered external shocks,the driving force of the national economy produced by the rural residents is bigger than urban residents.Therefore if only consider from the driven effects about the national economy, the government transferpayments policy should give priority to rural residents.Finally, we summarized the inadequacies of this study and proposed some recommendations forfurther research.